The Empire State Index of General Business Conditions for November surged even further to 41.01 following a jump in October to a record 34.11 (revised upward). Consensus expectations had been for a decline this month to 30.0. New [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Nov 17 2003Empire State Index Surged Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 14 2003
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Firm
The University of Michigans consumer sentiment index rose more than expected in mid-November to 93.5 versus 89.6 in October. It was the highest sentiment reading since May 2002. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 91.0. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 13 2003
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened more than expected in September to $41.3B. Consensus expectations were for a deficit of $40.0B. The deficit in August was revised slightly deeper. Nonpetroleum imports rose 4.5% (4.1% y/y) and [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 12 2003
Commodity Prices Higher
Prices for industrial commodities added to earlier gains and through October jumped roughly 10% versus August. The JoC-ECRI Industrial Price Index has leveled off recently. Strength in the metals sub-index has cooled the past month, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 11 2003
Weekly Chain Store Sales Jump
Chain store sales jumped 1.2% in the opening week of November according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales began the month of November 0.9% ahead of last month's average. That followed a 0.6% m/m decline during all of October. During the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 10 2003
Consumer Credit Usage Jumped
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) rose $15.1B (9.7% AR) in September. It was the sharpest one-month rise since this past January. Consensus expectations had been for a $6.0B gain. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 07 2003
U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Rose
Nonfarm payrolls have been firmer during the last three months than previously perceived. October payrolls rose 126,000 versus Consensus expectations for a 50,000 rise. September payrolls were revised to +125,000 from +57,000. August [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 06 2003
U.S. Productivity Surged in 3Q 2003
Nonfarm labor productivity growth last quarter surged 8.1%, the fastest rate of growth since 1Q02. Productivity growth in 2Q was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 3Q growth of 8.0%. Strong growth in recent [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 05 2003
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Jumped
The Institute for Supply Management reported that the October Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector gained back most of the prior month's decline. The increase to 64.7 was versus Consensus expectations for little [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 04 2003
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Broadly Weak
Light vehicle sales fell more than expected in October for the second consecutive month. Vehicle sales fell 6.5% m/m to 15.64M after falling 12.0% m/m in September from a two year high. Consensus expectations had been for sales of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Nov 03 2003
ISM Factory Index Higher, Orders Strong
The Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) released by the Institute of Supply Management rose more than expected to 57.0 in October from 53.7 in September. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 55.5. During the last twenty [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 31 2003
U.S. After Tax Income Fell
Personal disposable income fell 1.0% (+4.4% y/y) in September, reversing all of the 1.0% jump the prior month. The decline occurred as the mailing of rebate checks subsided and personal tax payments rose. Tax payments in September [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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