Global| Nov 11 2003Weekly Chain Store Sales Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales jumped 1.2% in the opening week of November according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales began the month of November 0.9% ahead of last month's average. That followed a 0.6% m/m decline during all of October. During the [...]
Chain store sales jumped 1.2% in the opening week of November according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
Sales began the month of November 0.9% ahead of last month's average. That followed a 0.6% m/m decline during all of October.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the BTM-UBSW measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 11/08/03 | 11/01/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 425.3 | 420.3 | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
by Tom Moeller November 11, 2003
Retail gasoline prices fell sharply last week to $1.50 per gallon. That added to earlier declines and pulled prices down 14% versus the peak of $1.75 in early September.
Crude oil prices also have fallen during the period. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude was $30.88 per barrel yesterday (19.1% y/y) versus a June high near $32.00 and a March high near $37.00.
Wholesale natural gas prices have trended lower recently to $4.37/mmbtu (12.1% y/y), down from the cold-weather spike over $12.00 in late February.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 11/10/03 | 12/30/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.50 | $1.44 | 4.5% | $1.34 | $1.42 | $1.48 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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