Global| Oct 13 2003OECD Leaders Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in August for the fifth consecutive month. The 0.9% increase was the fourth of that strong magnitude and the fifth in a row. Despite these gains the leading index remained 1.6% below [...]
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in August for the fifth consecutive month. The 0.9% increase was the fourth of that strong magnitude and the fifth in a row.
Despite these gains the leading index remained 1.6% below the long term trend, but they do suggest much improved growth in industrial production.
Gains amongst the member country leading indexes were broad. The leading index for the European Union rose 0.7%, the fourth strong monthly increase.
The leaders in Germany jumped 1.0% for the second month. In Italy, the leaders finally mustered some upward momentum and rose 0.5% following an upwardly revised 0.6% July gain. In Switzerland the leaders have been rising since early last year. In France gains in the leading index have cooled recently, up just 0.1% and 0.2% in the last two months.
Leaders in Japan have been on a tear recently, rising 1.1% in August. That pulled the three-month growth rate to 14.9%, the strongest growth rate since 1987. Share prices continued to surge, up big for four straight months.
In Canada the August leading indicators posted the strongest one-month increase in over a year and rose 1.6%, lifting the three-month growth rate to 12.5%. In the U.K. the leaders managed the fifth respectable monthly increase in August, up 0.5% m/m. That brought the three month growth rate up to 5.8%, about the highest since Spring 2002.
Leading indicators in the United States rose strongly for the fifth straight month.
Visit the OECD's website at this website.
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 122.5 | 121.4 | 4.1% | 4.0% | -2.3% | 3.1% |
| European Union | 119.0 | 118.3 | 2.2% | 3.1% | -1.9% | 3.7% |
| Japan | 105.5 | 104.3 | 4.3% | 0.7% | -2.9% | 2.5% |
| United States | 134.8 | 133.7 | 5.7% | 5.6% | -2.6% | 2.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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