Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

  • Finished producer prices surged 0.6% in January. The increase was the largest since October of last year. The core PPI rose 0.3% following two months of flat-to-down prices. Release of the figures was delayed due to the conversion to [...]

  • Global| Mar 17 2004

    Consumer Prices Rose Broadly

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.3% in February, matching Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. A 0.2% rise in prices less food & energy was slightly firmer than the 0.1% Consensus expectation. Prices of core consumer goods [...]

  • Global| Mar 16 2004

    Housing Starts Fell Again

    Housing starts fell 4.0% last month and added to the 6.3% drop in January. February starts of 1.855M were the lowest since last August. Consensus forecasts had been for 1.93M starts in February. Single family starts fell 4.1%, the [...]

  • Industrial production rose another 0.7% in February following an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in January. The rise easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Production in the factory sector jumped 1.0% following the [...]

  • Global| Mar 11 2004

    U.S. Retail Sales Firm

    Retail sales rose 0.6% last month and matched the Consensus expectation. The previously reported 0.3% decline in January sales was revised up to a 0.3% increase. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers were little [...]

  • The U.S. foreign trade deficit set a new record in January. It deepened sharply to $43.1B versus December's deficit of $42.7B which was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $41.5B. Exports fell a sharp 1.2% [...]

  • Global| Mar 09 2004

    Chain Store Sales Dipped

    The ICSC-UBS survey reported that chain store sales fell 0.3% last week following little change the week prior, a result that was revised down slightly. Sales have been lackluster for the last three weeks after a strong start in [...]

  • Global| Mar 08 2004

    OECD Leaders Rose Again

    The Index of Leading Indicators for the Major Seven OECD Countries began 2004 signaling economic growth. A 0.3% (6.2% y/y) rise in January was the tenth consecutive monthly increase. Six-month growth in the leading index dipped [...]

  • Growth in non-farm payrolls slowed last month to 21,000 (0.0%) from the downwardly revised 97,000 January gain. Consensus expectations had been for a rise of 125,000. A weak 46,000 (0.4% y/y) gain in service producing payrolls was the [...]

  • Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 7,000 (-2.0%) to 345,000 last week, again matching Consensus expectations. That reversed the prior week's rise (revised up slightly). During the last ten years there has been a 77% (negative) [...]

  • Unit sales of light vehicles ticked up a slight 1.5% m/m in February to 16.37M following a 9.1% January slump. Consensus expectations were for sales of 16.5M. Car sales recovered 5.0% m/m to 7.41M after two months of decline. Sales of [...]

  • Global| Mar 02 2004

    Challenger Layoffs Plunge

    Announced job cuts fell 34.3% m/m in February to the lowest level since last September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The three month moving average of job cut announcements fell to 95,942 (-20.8% y/y). During the last [...]