Global| Mar 02 2004Challenger Layoffs Plunge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Announced job cuts fell 34.3% m/m in February to the lowest level since last September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The three month moving average of job cut announcements fell to 95,942 (-20.8% y/y). During the last [...]
Announced job cuts fell 34.3% m/m in February to the lowest level since last September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
The three month moving average of job cut announcements fell to 95,942 (-20.8% y/y). During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month average level of announced job cuts and the y/y percent change payroll employment.
The decline in layoffs was widespread across industries. However, large m/m increases in job cut announcements were tallied in the automotive (-35.6% y/y), electronics (-67.4% y/y), health care (+628.4% y/y) and insurance (+171.1% y/y) industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 77,250 | 117,556 | -44.1% | 1,236,426 | 1,431,052 | 1,956,876 |
by Tom Moeller March 2, 2004
Chain store sales rose fractionally last week. That pulled sales for the near-completed month of February 2.0% above January, according to the ICSC-UBS survey.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the ICSC-UBS measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 02/28/04 | 02/21/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 438.1 | 437.9 | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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