Global| Mar 09 2004Chain Store Sales Dipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ICSC-UBS survey reported that chain store sales fell 0.3% last week following little change the week prior, a result that was revised down slightly. Sales have been lackluster for the last three weeks after a strong start in [...]
The ICSC-UBS survey reported that chain store sales fell 0.3% last week following little change the week prior, a result that was revised down slightly. Sales have been lackluster for the last three weeks after a strong start in February.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the ICSC-UBS measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 03/06/04 | 02/28/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 436.6 | 437.8 | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller March 9, 2004
The Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell 3.0% in February following a 1.0% m/m decline in January.
The m/m decline reflected a sharp drop, to 33%, in the percent of firms expecting the economy to improve. As a result, the percentage of firms planning to raise employment fell to 13%, the lowest level since November. The percentage of firms planning to add to capital expenditures also fell to the lowest since November.
During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the y/y change in real GDP.
The percent of owners raising average selling prices rose to 13%, the highest level since May 2001.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 102.6 | 105.8 | 6.8% | 101.3 | 101.2 | 98.4 |
by Tom Moeller March 9, 2004
Retail gasoline prices have risen steadily this year. Last week they settled at $1.74 per gallon versus an average price of $1.65 in February and $1.57 in January.
Wholesale natural gas prices opened the year strong but recently have fallen to $5.26/mmbtu (-32.9% y/y) as temperatures warmed.
Crude oil prices backed up through yesterday to $37.08 for West Texas Intermediate crude versus a low in late September below $27.00.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 03/08/04 | 12/29/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.74 | $1.48 | 1.5% | $1.56 | $1.34 | $1.42 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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