Global| Mar 15 2004U.S. Industrial Production Firm Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production rose another 0.7% in February following an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in January. The rise easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase. Production in the factory sector jumped 1.0% following the [...]
Industrial production rose another 0.7% in February following an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in January. The rise easily outpaced Consensus expectations for a 0.4% increase.
Production in the factory sector jumped 1.0% following the 0.3% January gain (3.2% y/y). Output of utilities fell 0.7% after a revised 5.3% jump in January due to cold weather.
Output in selected high-technology industries again led the factory sector with a 2.1% m/m surge (23.5% y/y). Output of semiconductors & related equipment surged 3.0% (42.6% y/y). Output of computers & peripheral equipment jumped 2.1% (16.7% y/y), the eighth consecutive monthly gain at about that rate, and output of communications equipment rose 0.3% (-1.3% y/y).
Excluding high-tech, factory output jumped 0.9% (1.9% y/y). Higher output of motor vehicles & parts, up 1.6%, led that gain but machinery output also rose a strong 1.7% (6.4% y/y). Non-durables output jumped 0.9% (0.7% y/y) due to across the board strength.
Total capacity utilization rose to 76.6%, the highest level since June '02. Y/Y growth in capacity was a low 1.1%, the slowest since early 1989.
| Production & Capacity | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | -0.6% | -3.4% |
| Capacity Utilization | 76.6% | 76.1% | 75.4%(2/03) | 74.9% | 75.6% | 77.4% |
by Tom Moeller March 15, 2004
The March Empire State Index of General Business Conditions fell to 25.33 from the record high in February. The 16.7 point m/m decline was versus a more moderate decline expected by the Consensus and was to the lowest level in six months.
The new orders index dropped sharply to 23.52, also the lowest level in six months. The shipments index fell just slightly after the 15 point slump in January and the employment index slid further to 9.72, a six month low.
The index of prices surged 16.4 points m/m to 50.0, another series' record.
The February index of expectations for business conditions six months ahead fell slightly m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline from the record high in December. Expectations for capital expenditures improved for the second month in a row.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.
For more on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, including methodologies and the latest report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Mar | Feb | 3/03 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Conditions (diffusion index) | 25.33 | 42.05 | -0.35 | 16.30 | 7.02 | -13.57 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
