Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 28 2004

  U.S. Personal Income Up More Than Expected

  Personal income rose 0.6% (+5.7% y/y) last month versus the Consensus expectation for a 0.5% gain. While the upside surprise was slight, it reflected a firm 0.5% (4.8% y/y) rise in wages & salaries that followed an upwardly revised [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 27 2004

  Q1 2004 GDP Revised Up Slightly, Corporate Profit Growth Slowed

  US real GDP growth in 1Q was revised slightly higher to 4.4% (AR) from the advance report of 4.2% growth. The Consensus expectation was for a revision to 4.5% growth. Growth in operating earnings slowed. Before tax corporate profits [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 26 2004

  New Home Sales Down

  Sales of new one-family homes fell 11.8% in April to 1.093M. Consensus estimates had been for a lesser decline to 1.200 million. March sales were revised slightly higher. The figures contrast with yesterday's report of a 2.5% m/m gain [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 25 2004

  Chain Store Sales Lower Again As Gasoline Prices Rose Further

  Chain store sales fell 0.5% last week on top of a 0.8% decline the week prior, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Retail gasoline prices rose to an average $2.06 per gallon last week (+38.8% y/y), [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 24 2004

  Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Up

  The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in April to 0.64 from 0.23 in March. The latest was the highest reading since last November. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also improved to 0.45, the highest level [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 20 2004

  Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up

  Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 12,000 last week to 345,000 and the prior week's increase was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a decline in claims to 325,000. The latest figure covers the survey [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 19 2004

  Mortgage Applications Fell Further

  The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association tumbled 11.9% (-58.1% y/y) last week led by a 16.8% collapse in applications to refinance (-78.2% y/y). Purchase applications posted the first w/w decline [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 18 2004

  Housing Starts Down As Expected

  Housing starts fell 2.1% last month from the near-record level in March, that was revised slightly higher. April starts of 1.969M compared to the Consensus expectation for 1.98M. Single family starts slipped a modest 0.6% from the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 14 2004

  Consumer Prices Rose Less Than Forecast, But ...

  The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.2% in April versus Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. Core consumer prices, however, rose 0.3%, slightly more than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. A surprising 0.3% m/m (11.0% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 13 2004

  U.S. Retail Sales Moderate

  Retail sales eased 0.5% in April following little-revised jumps of 2.0% and 1.0% during the prior two months. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.1% dip. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts dealers matched Consensus [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 12 2004

  U.S. Trade Deficit Another Record in March

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened to a record $45.96B in March from the unrevised $42.12B deficit of a month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a deficit of $43.0B. The 1Q04 average deficit of $43.8 also set a new [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 11 2004

  Chain Store Sales Up Despite Rise In Gas Price

  Chain store sales rose another 0.3% last week on top of a 1.5% gain the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Sales began the month of May 1.7% above the April average. During the last [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief