Global
The chart on the left shows the ISM clearly has broken through the up trend from its recession recovery and now is in a well-established downtrend. Its recent up-tick is still in the grip of that down-trending range.
The table below shows the ISM and its components with a number of statistics that describe it/them. A quick perusal of the table shows why I like to evaluate the ISM by looking at the values in the LAST TWO columns instead of seeing if the index is above 50 (Rising) or below it (Falling).
Each of these ISM components has a different range variability characteristic, range of values and mean.
Even with the ISM above 50, as it is this month, it is still only in the 46th percentile of its range and at 96% of mean.Only inventories, prices and the trade-related components are above their mean values. Employment, at 99% of its mean, is nearly there.
So while the ISM indicates expansion in the lexicon of the ISM we can see it is indeed a still wounded report that shows manufacturing is not yet up to par.
Placing ISM Readings in their Respective Ranges| Since June 1998 | |||||||||
| ISM | Current | Std Dev | Average | SD%Avg | MAX | MIN | Range | Percentile | % of AVG |
| PM Index | 50.9 | 5.3 | 53.2 | 10.0 | 63.2 | 40.5 | 22.7 | 45.8 | 96 |
| New Orders | 51.6 | 6.7 | 55.8 | 12.0 | 71.3 | 38.4 | 32.9 | 40.1 | 93 |
| Backlogs | 47.0 | 6.7 | 50.4 | 13.4 | 66.5 | 36.0 | 30.5 | 36.1 | 93 |
| Production | 53.0 | 6.3 | 55.7 | 11.4 | 70.0 | 38.6 | 31.4 | 45.9 | 95 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 51.3 | 5.0 | 54.2 | 9.2 | 68.1 | 45.4 | 22.7 | 26.0 | 95 |
| Inventories | 47.5 | 3.9 | 45.8 | 8.6 | 53.6 | 37.1 | 16.5 | 63.0 | 104 |
| Prices (Pd) | 65.5 | 12.6 | 62.1 | 20.3 | 88.0 | 32.0 | 56.0 | 59.8 | 105 |
| Employment | 48.7 | 5.9 | 49.3 | 12.0 | 60.3 | 35.1 | 25.2 | 54.0 | 99 |
| New Export Orders | 55.5 | 3.5 | 53.6 | 6.6 | 60.2 | 44.3 | 15.9 | 70.4 | 104 |
| Import Orders | 57.5 | 3.6 | 54.6 | 6.6 | 61.5 | 46.9 | 14.6 | 72.6 | 105 |
| Avg Days Lead For: | Since June 1998 | ||||||||
| Production Material | 45.0 | 3.2 | 47.1 | 6.9 | 55.0 | 38.0 | 17.0 | 41.2 | 96 |
| Capital Expenditure | 110.0 | 8.7 | 107.1 | 8.1 | 120.0 | 86.0 | 34.0 | 70.6 | 103 |
| Maint., Repair, & Ops | 22.0 | 2.1 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 29.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 41.7 | 98 |
| Note: From April 1991 to Date; except back logs since Jan 1993 | |||||||||
The leading components of the NTC E-zone index are showing mixed trends. We form these trends as the difference between the 3 month and six month indexes. Supplier deliveries and prices-paid are turning up while new orders and order backlog trends are eroding. 
The chart on the left contains the Q/Q as well as the Yr/Yr plot for GDP to show trend and volatility. On it you can seen that GDP growth is still gradually eroding, but amid enough volatility to make the trend less than certain.
Mid- to late-January had seen a nice break in these markets (at least from consumers' viewpoints), as gasoline was flirting with $2.00/gallon and crude oil fell near $50/barrel. In this period, demand was relatively low and inventories relatively high, as gauged by "days' supply" of gasoline inventory, seen in the second graph. In the days' supply measure, gasoline stocks are compared with the volume of product supplied. This "inventory/sales ratio" is an excellent illustration of the seasonal effect. The graph makes plain that these weeks in mid-winter are always a high point for gasoline availability. In the first week of February, the ratio peaked at 25.0 days, compared with annual averages just above 22 days for each of the last two calendar years. The graph also shows, however, that the whole range of inventory adequacy has declined in recent years; in 2001, that mid-winter peak was 26.3 days and in 1999, it was 29.1 days. Demand appears not to have weakened so much in the winter as it used to.
