January Euro Area retail sales fell 1% in volume terms. Over three months growth has slowed marginally and is clinging in real terms to a 1% rate of growth. The volume of spending on food has picked up in the recent three months after [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Mar 05 2008Retail Sales and Spending Plans in EMU: Deceleration
- Global| Mar 04 2008
EMU GDP Growth Decelerates
EMU GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q4 bringing its year/year growth down to 2.2% from 2.6% in 2007-Q3. Private consumption spending fell by 0.3% at an annual rate. Domestic demand in total was flat in the quarter and is rising at a 1.9% annual rate over four quarters. Export growth slowed sharply in the quarter and is showing a decline in its year-over-year rate. Imports fell in Q4 and their growth also has been moderating in 2007. Euro growth shows broad based slowing, but growth that is still holding up. Private consumption is weak and that remains a sticking point within the EMU.
European GDP EU-13 GDP Consumption Capital Formation Trade Domestic
DemandPrivate Public Total Excl
HousingHousing X-M:
Bil EurosExports Imports % Change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q Change in Bil of Euros Q4-07 1.5% -0.3% -0.3% 1.0% #N/A #N/A #N/A 2.2% -1.5% 0.0% Q3-07 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% 8.7% 10.4% 3.3% -2.3 8.6% 10.3% 3.6% Q2-07 1.1% 2.5% 0.7% -5.6% -5.7% -5.5% 5.0 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% Q1-07 3.2% 0.2% 4.4% 14.2% 16.6% 7.1% -2.7 3.7% 5.7% 4.0% % Change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr Change in Gap in Bil of Euros Q4-07 2.2% 1.1% 1.8% 4.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A 4.4% 3.8% 1.9% Q3-07 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 11.0 7.1% 5.9% 2.1% Q2-07 2.4% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 2.4% 8.8 5.8% 5.0% 2.0% Q1-07 3.1% 1.4% 2.2% 7.5% 7.8% 6.6% 6.6 6.6% 6.0% 2.9% 5-Yrs 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 3.8% #N/A #N/A na 5.4% 5.5% 2.0% - Global| Mar 04 2008
Euro Area Producer Prices Surge in January; Core Elevates Too
The Euro Area PPI rose by 0.8% in January. Excluding energy, prices rose by 0.6%. Headline inflation is accelerating. Ex-energy inflation is stubborn just above the 3% mark. Among the major three categories, inflation is subdued only for capital equipment, rising at a pace of 1.3% year-over-year. Consumer goods inflation is oscillating in the 4% to 5% range over the past year. Intermediate goods prices have been above the 2% mark in recent months. Across the largest EMU economies ex-energy inflation is tame only for Germany. For France and Italy ex-energy inflation is around 3%. In the UK ex-energy inflation is 3.9% and accelerating to over 5% over three months.
Euro Area and UK PPI Trends M/M SAAR Euro Area 15 Jan-08 Dec-07 3-Mo 6-MO Yr/Yr Y/Y Yr Ago Total PPI ex Construction 0.8% 0.1% 7.4% 6.0% 4.9% 3.1% Excl Energy 0.6% 0.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% Capital Goods 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% Consumer Goods 0.5% 0.3% 4.8% 5.6% 4.2% 1.5% Intermediate & Capital Goods 0.7% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.8% 4.5% Energy 1.4% 0.2% 21.9% 15.6% 10.6% 1.6% MFG 0.5% 0.1% 5.2% 4.7% 5.1% 2.4% Germany PPI 0.8% -0.1% 6.5% 4.6% 3.3% 3.2% Ex Energy 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9% France PPI 0.5% 0.1% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 1.8% Ex Energy 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% Italy PPI 0.4% 0.1% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.0% Ex Energy 0.5% 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 4.4% UK PPI 1.3% 1.3% 24.8% 18.7% 7.9% -1.4% Ex Energy 1.0% 0.3% 5.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.2% Euro Area 15 Harmonized PPI excluding Construction The EA 15 countries are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. - Global| Mar 03 2008
UK MFG Sector Makes a Small Bounce
The UK MFG sector rebounded slightly in February although it remains a weak reading for the sector at 52.26. Readings above 50 indicated expansion on this measure. The MFG measure stands in the 61st percentile of its range, a [...]
- Global| Mar 03 2008
Inflation Continues to be too Strong in EMU in February
The new FLASH estimate of EMU inflation stands at 3.2% year/year in February 2008 the same pace as in January. Germany's own headline rate rose by 0.2% in February and that is the rate implied by the new 3.2% for all of EMU (no [...]
- Global| Feb 29 2008
Is the ECB Winning or Losing on Inflation?
February has seen a now dollar low VS the Euro, a new high for gold and for other precious metals, as well as repeated new highs for oil prices. In January EMU prices are up by 0.3% with inflation accelerating in its sequential growth [...]
- Global| Feb 29 2008
EU Indexes Point Lower - Across the Board
EU sentiment indexes are also lower year over year. In February the EU/EMU and all large countries' sentiment indexes fell except in Germany where a small bounce was recorded. Conditions in the UK (an EU member not an EMU member) [...]
- Global| Feb 28 2008
Japan Industrial Production is Slipping
Japan’s dip in IP in January is hard to evaluate right now. IP trends are moving lower but the Yr/Yr rate is still steady. The shorter term sequential growth rates, in the table below, show that the recent weakness is an artifact of [...]
- Global| Feb 28 2008
UK Consumer Confidence Drops
The UK economy has dropped and is dropping sharply in early 2008.The index is the weakest it has been in at least 10 years. Over the past 12 months households still rate their own financial situation in the top 80 percentile of its [...]
- Global| Feb 28 2008
French Morale Slips Then Falls Flat. Worst In Over 18 Years
French household confidence is at an all time life-of-series low. Living standards for the past 12 months are rated as the worst of this 18-year period.Expected conditions over the next 12 months are rated in the bottom 3 percent of [...]
- Global| Feb 27 2008
German Ex Energy Export and Import Prices Are Still Falling Yr/Yr
German export and import prices are rising very strongly in January and the three-month growth rates show acceleration. But jettison energy, export and import price trends are a lot steadier, still showing some acceleration in the [...]
- Global| Feb 27 2008
Money and Credit Trend in Euro Area Remain Robust…
The table below shows Euro area money and credit growth comparing it to money growth in several key countries. We also provide data on real balances (inflation-adjusted money and credit). Despite ongoing financial turmoil, here data [...]
- of362Go to 327 page