Global| Feb 28 2008Japan Industrial Production is Slipping
Summary
Japan’s dip in IP in January is hard to evaluate right now. IP trends are moving lower but the Yr/Yr rate is still steady. The shorter term sequential growth rates, in the table below, show that the recent weakness is an artifact of [...]
Japan’s dip in IP in January is hard to evaluate right now. IP trends are moving lower but the Yr/Yr rate is still steady. The shorter term sequential growth rates, in the table below, show that the recent weakness is an artifact of the 3-month growth rates alone. Six-month growth rates are higher that 12-month rates for Total MFG and total industry. But textiles output, investment goods and minting show erosion between the 6 and 12-month horizons. All sectors and industries see declines in January and all are lower over three months except electricity and gas producers.
| Japan Industrial Production Trends | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | |||||
| Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | |
| Mining & Mfg | -2.0% | 1.4% | -1.6% | -8.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Total Industry | -2.3% | 1.7% | -1.3% | -7.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Mfg | -1.9% | 1.4% | -1.6% | -8.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% |
| Textiles | -2.3% | 2.5% | -2.2% | -7.7% | -7.4% | -5.0% | -4.2% |
| Transport | -3.2% | 2.4% | -2.9% | -14.2% | 31.5% | 11.6% | 4.6% |
| Product Group | |||||||
| Consumer Goods | -1.5% | 2.1% | -2.1% | -6.1% | 13.2% | 4.2% | -0.8% |
| Intermediate Goods | -2.6% | 1.3% | -1.1% | -9.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Investment Goods | -0.4% | -0.6% | -1.9% | -11.1% | -7.6% | -3.4% | 5.8% |
| Mining | -2.9% | 1.1% | -5.9% | -27.2% | -15.9% | -5.1% | 3.5% |
| Electric & Gas | -1.4% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 15.2% | 5.9% | -2.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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