Rising order trends mask encroaching weakness. Despite a sharp 3.6% drop in orders in December EMU orders are still rising strongly over three months and a strong 8.5% in the quarter. Order trends are even turning higher despite the [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Feb 22 2008Euro Area Orders Drop Sharply in December
- Global| Feb 21 2008
French Inflation: Core and Headline Rates Move Higher
French inflation is showing pressure. In January the Yr/Yr HICP pace is up to 3.2% from 1.4% in the previous 12-month period. The CPI excl food and energy rate is up to 2% from 1.4% a year ago. The 3-month CPI excl food and energy [...]
- Global| Feb 20 2008
UK Output Trends Decline as Orders Hover Showing Small Persisting Gains
The UK’s CBI report is a survey which reports purchaser type survey data as net measures (net better Vs worse responses). The report shows that output trends, while still showing expansion, have moved substantially lower. Order trends [...]
- Global| Feb 20 2008
German PPI Inflation Shows Stubbornness
The German inflation picture remains a bit hotter than the ECB would have liked. With headline PPI inflation up by 0.7% the core was up by 0.4%. Over the past 12 months, headline MFG inflation is at 3.2% the same as it was a year ago. [...]
- Global| Feb 20 2008
New Industrial Orders in December Sag in Italy and in France
French and Italian orders have shown some consistency in recent years in their oscillations. Currently Italy’s trends are a bit flatter and the French trends are still a bit stronger but both saw clear evidence of losing momentum as [...]
- Global| Feb 19 2008
Japan Offers Up some Mixed Signals From Two LEI Concepts
Japan’s own leading index composite is demonstrating ongoing weakness. The OECD’s take is that there is an improvement afoot. Japan’s own index peaked in the first half of 2006 and has since then been in a steady and rapid [...]
- Global| Feb 15 2008
EMU Trade Deficit Emerges
EMU import growth is slowing but export growth is slowing faster. As a result EMU has developed its first trade deficit in 16 months. Germany and Finland the two EMU countries with the lowest inflation rates in the last 10 years [...]
- Global| Feb 15 2008
BOF Biz Indicators Softens
The Bank of France monthly business survey for January 2008 shows that production has held up but that there is a clear gnawing away at past trends. The chart at the top shows that the Biz indicators have been fairly flat recently but [...]
- Global| Feb 14 2008
GDP Slows on a Very Broad Front
GDP growth is slowing on a broad front. German GDP is slowing year/year for four straight quarters. For most other countries Q3 growth brought an up tick that quarter and interrupted what would have been similar long strings of GDP [...]
- Global| Feb 13 2008
Japan's Consumer Confidence Very Weak
Japan’s consumer confidence survey did not used to be monthly. That is why the chart shows its past as a quarterly report represented by unconnected dots co-joined with its new form in which the dots are connected month-to-month. [...]
- Global| Feb 13 2008
IP Sinking in All Sectors
All EMU industrial sectors are seeing a considerable decline in their rates of growth for industrial output. Capital goods has been a strong sector in Europe and we have seen orders for capital goods holding up especially in Germany. [...]
- Global| Feb 11 2008
Italy’s IP is Sinking Fast…
Italy is the most troubled of the large EMU economies. It’s Industrial Output is declining on a clear downward trend. For its three major sectors, Consumer goods, Intermediate goods and Capital goods output trends are declining over [...]
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