Global| Mar 07 2008OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Moderate Slowing
Summary
The OECD CLIs are largely still falling over the most recent three months, but generally the three-month drops are at a slower pace than the pace of the declines over six months. That is not the best news but it is good news of sorts. [...]
The OECD CLIs are largely still falling over the most recent three months, but generally the three-month drops are at a slower pace than the pace of the declines over six months. That is not the best news but it is good news of sorts. Of course the US is an exception to this observation since the three-month US decline is accelerating. Japan is the other sort of exception with an actual rise over three months and rise over six months. Japan had hit the skids in CLI terms ahead of the pack. In real time Japan’s economy is still slipping.
We can hope that Japan’s resurgent indicator implies that it has shrugged off a brush with recession. But the fact that key US economy is sinking faster than anyone else should give us pause about rosy scenarios. For the most part the OECD characterizes these results as consistent with a moderate slowdown. But with some of the recent weak data in the US, recent financial market turmoil that has reappeared, and the CLI trend there is clear downside risk.
| OECD Trend-restored leading Indicators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth progression-SAAR | ||||
| 3Mos | 6Mos | 12mos | Yr-Ago | |
| OECD | -1.0% | -2.4% | -0.4% | 1.6% |
| OECD 7 | -3.3% | -4.2% | -1.4% | 0.6% |
| OECD.Europe | -0.9% | -2.0% | -0.8% | 2.0% |
| OECD.Japan | 8.9% | 0.5% | -1.8% | 1.0% |
| OECD US | -6.8% | -6.0% | -1.2% | 0.2% |
| Six month readings at 6-Mo Intervals: | ||||
| Recent six | 6Mo Ago | 12Mo Ago | 18MO Ago | |
| OECD | -2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| OECD 7 | -4.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| OECD.Europe | -2.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| OECD.Japan | 0.5% | -4.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| OECD US | -6.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% | -1.1% |
| Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED | ||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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