Global| Mar 12 2008Euro-Area IP Rebounds in January
Summary
In January Euro Area IP rose by a strong 0.9%. MFG output advanced at a 1.2% pace and even consumer goods output was strong with a gain of 0.8%. Consumer durables output led the advance within consumption with a rise of 1.9% in the [...]
In January Euro Area IP rose by a strong 0.9%. MFG output
advanced at a 1.2% pace and even consumer goods output was strong with
a gain of 0.8%. Consumer durables output led the advance within
consumption with a rise of 1.9% in the month. But capital goods
expansion was stronger still, rising by 2.7% in January as intermediate
goods output rose by 0.8%. These figures left Yr/Yr trends strong as
MFG output rose at a 3.2% pace over 12 months and capital equipment
rose at a 7.3% pace. Yr/Yr consumer output was up by just 1.3%.
However, in the new quarter with one month’s data overall IP is
expanding at a 7.2% pace led by capital equipment which is up at a
15.5% pace. Even consumer output is rising at a strong 4.4% pace in the
new quarter.
As we saw in the country detail IP reports earlier, several
EMU nations experienced some exceptional factors that augmented growth
in January. The Bundesbank is looking for overall German growth to slow
below trend there. There is also the strong euro’s impact to consider.
While January was a stronger month it is best to be wary of what the
future holds for IP trends in the months ahead.
| E-zone and UK IP and MFG | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Mo/Mo | Jan-08 | |||||
| Euro Area Detail | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Qtr-to-Date |
| Manufacturing | 1.2% | 0.2% | -0.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 7.2% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.8% | 0.1% | -0.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 4.4% |
| Consumer Durables | 1.9% | -0.1% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -0.8% | 0.1% | -- |
| Consumer Nondurables | 0.6% | 0.1% | -0.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | -- |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.9% |
| Capital Goods | 2.7% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 15.5% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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