It’s telling when an organization like the CBI says that the expected January reading of -5 still corresponds to an annual volume increase of 2.5%. But the result of December is the weakest in a bit over one year (since Nov 2006). The [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Dec 19 2007UK CBI Retail Survey Continues to Deflate Messy-nomics
- Global| Dec 18 2007
EMU Trade Surplus Grows as Flows Slow
It may seem curious that so many Europeans are complaining about the strength of the euro while Europe’s economic data are off peak but are not collapsing and as the Euro Area trade surplus is still growing in October. Growing – the [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2007
Japan Tertiary Index Bounces
As we saw earlier, Japan’s mining and manufacturing index is holding up after some special factors weakened it earlier in the year. Now the tertiary index is stabilizing in October. It rose to 110.9 in October but its 12 month change [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2007
NTC FLASH Indices for E-Zone MFG and Services - Still Struggling
The NTC MFG and Services indices for the E-zone slipped in December in their flash release. Services are below their three month and six month and 12-month average values. Manufacturing is too, except for the three month comparison. [...]
- Global| Dec 14 2007
EMU Inflation Surges as Core Dallies Over Top-Allowed Pace
The inflation trends tell the story. It’s a clear story of angst at the ECB. The sequential growth rates (3Mo Vs 6Mo Vs 12Mo) show a steady quickening of the pace of inflation in the more recent time periods. Over 12 months (ECB’s [...]
- Global| Dec 14 2007
CBI Survey Shows Industrial Slowing and Lingering Inflation
The CBI Industrial Survey shows still firm readings for measures of activity. Orders are still in the 86th percentile of their range. Export orders remain in the 98th percentile of their range. Output volume is much softer in the 55th [...]
- Global| Dec 13 2007
RICS House Prices Sag Badly
The RICs survey presents as its metric a net balance reading as surveys respond by saying house prices are higher or lower. Both series show a larger progressive trend lower that is represented by sequentially lower peaks in the [...]
- Global| Dec 12 2007
Japan’s Exports Continue to Outpace Imports
Japans exports and imports each show generally declining trends. Imports are up by just 4.4% year/year while exports are advancing at a pace of 11.4%. Japan’s services deficit is shrinking. Its good surplus and current account surplus [...]
- Global| Dec 11 2007
Economy Watchers Index Drops Sharply in Japan
Japan’s economy watchers index is very weak. The future index is in the bottom 10 percent of its five year range. The current index and the employment reading are in about the bottom 15th percentile of their respective ranges. The [...]
- Global| Dec 11 2007
Machinery Orders in Japan Grow but Core Orders Still Struggle
Overall Japan orders are up sharply in October at 18.7% and core orders are up a strong 12.7%. But over three months overall orders are a strong +29.1% while core orders are off at a 14.5% pace. Over the past 12 months core orders are [...]
- Global| Dec 10 2007
German IP Trends Caught in Cross Currents
German IP edged lower in October in the face of a spurt in orders for the month that was dominated by bulk orders. Still with the -0.3% October result German IP is entering the new quarter on an up note. Q/Q calculations are concerned [...]
- Global| Dec 10 2007
OECD LEIs Are Sagging
The MAIN OECD LEIs (leading economic Indicators, trend adjusted) are dropping at a faster pace over the recent three months. Japan’s drop is the sharpest. The OECD itself pushes emphasis on the 6-month changes in these indexes. On [...]
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