The ZEW index continues to show erosion in the current conditions index but the forward-looking expectations portion of the survey is up for two months running. A year ago current conditions stood at 69.2 compared to 32.1 in March [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Mar 10 2008ZEW Expectations Rise Again as Current Conditions Erode
- Global| Mar 10 2008
Japan Machinery Orders Show Strength
Japan orders are showing signs of erratic rebound. Orders hit their cycle low early in 2007. Since then they have been rebounding irregularly. Foreign demand is showing the sharpest increase but the domestic/foreign order breakdowns [...]
- Global| Mar 10 2008
Economy Watchers Index Rebounds
Japan’s economy watcher’s index made a long awaited bounce in February. The future conditions index rebounded most sharply. The current conditions and current employment indices each made soft rebounds as well. The future index is now [...]
- Global| Mar 07 2008
German IP Sees Huge Lift From Capital Goods
German IP was a breath of fresh air in January. But it may not have been made in the best of circumstances. Capital goods output surged by 6.2% m/m possibly a result of special rules favoring investment that are phasing out. [...]
- Global| Mar 07 2008
OECD Composite Leading Indicators: Moderate Slowing
The OECD CLIs are largely still falling over the most recent three months, but generally the three-month drops are at a slower pace than the pace of the declines over six months. That is not the best news but it is good news of sorts. [...]
- Global| Mar 06 2008
Japan Economy Shows Weakening Sectors and a Weakening Outlook
The Teikoku indices show a weakening Japan economy. Just today Japan policymakers, commenting on the state of the economy, were saying that it is weak and did not know if the word ‘recession’ should be used in connection with it. The [...]
- Global| Mar 06 2008
German Orders Take Another Swing Lower
Manufacturing orders were a little weaker at the start of the year than in the fourth quarter said the German ministry in a classic understatement of the facts. It noted, however, mitigating factors, such as a change in the tax [...]
- Global| Mar 05 2008
EMU Services PMI Makes a Small Rebound in February
Services in the Euro Area bounced back in February but the index still resides in the lower portion of the range it has occupied since May of 2000. The overall index stands in its 39th percentile, about 10 percentage points below [...]
- Global| Mar 05 2008
Retail Sales and Spending Plans in EMU: Deceleration
January Euro Area retail sales fell 1% in volume terms. Over three months growth has slowed marginally and is clinging in real terms to a 1% rate of growth. The volume of spending on food has picked up in the recent three months after [...]
- Global| Mar 04 2008
EMU GDP Growth Decelerates
EMU GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q4 bringing its year/year growth down to 2.2% from 2.6% in 2007-Q3. Private consumption spending fell by 0.3% at an annual rate. Domestic demand in total was flat in the quarter and is rising at a 1.9% annual rate over four quarters. Export growth slowed sharply in the quarter and is showing a decline in its year-over-year rate. Imports fell in Q4 and their growth also has been moderating in 2007. Euro growth shows broad based slowing, but growth that is still holding up. Private consumption is weak and that remains a sticking point within the EMU.
European GDP EU-13 GDP Consumption Capital Formation Trade Domestic
DemandPrivate Public Total Excl
HousingHousing X-M:
Bil EurosExports Imports % Change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q Change in Bil of Euros Q4-07 1.5% -0.3% -0.3% 1.0% #N/A #N/A #N/A 2.2% -1.5% 0.0% Q3-07 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% 8.7% 10.4% 3.3% -2.3 8.6% 10.3% 3.6% Q2-07 1.1% 2.5% 0.7% -5.6% -5.7% -5.5% 5.0 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% Q1-07 3.2% 0.2% 4.4% 14.2% 16.6% 7.1% -2.7 3.7% 5.7% 4.0% % Change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr Change in Gap in Bil of Euros Q4-07 2.2% 1.1% 1.8% 4.3% #N/A #N/A #N/A 4.4% 3.8% 1.9% Q3-07 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 11.0 7.1% 5.9% 2.1% Q2-07 2.4% 1.6% 2.1% 3.1% 3.4% 2.4% 8.8 5.8% 5.0% 2.0% Q1-07 3.1% 1.4% 2.2% 7.5% 7.8% 6.6% 6.6 6.6% 6.0% 2.9% 5-Yrs 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 3.8% #N/A #N/A na 5.4% 5.5% 2.0% - Global| Mar 04 2008
Euro Area Producer Prices Surge in January; Core Elevates Too
The Euro Area PPI rose by 0.8% in January. Excluding energy, prices rose by 0.6%. Headline inflation is accelerating. Ex-energy inflation is stubborn just above the 3% mark. Among the major three categories, inflation is subdued only for capital equipment, rising at a pace of 1.3% year-over-year. Consumer goods inflation is oscillating in the 4% to 5% range over the past year. Intermediate goods prices have been above the 2% mark in recent months. Across the largest EMU economies ex-energy inflation is tame only for Germany. For France and Italy ex-energy inflation is around 3%. In the UK ex-energy inflation is 3.9% and accelerating to over 5% over three months.
Euro Area and UK PPI Trends M/M SAAR Euro Area 15 Jan-08 Dec-07 3-Mo 6-MO Yr/Yr Y/Y Yr Ago Total PPI ex Construction 0.8% 0.1% 7.4% 6.0% 4.9% 3.1% Excl Energy 0.6% 0.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% Capital Goods 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% Consumer Goods 0.5% 0.3% 4.8% 5.6% 4.2% 1.5% Intermediate & Capital Goods 0.7% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.8% 4.5% Energy 1.4% 0.2% 21.9% 15.6% 10.6% 1.6% MFG 0.5% 0.1% 5.2% 4.7% 5.1% 2.4% Germany PPI 0.8% -0.1% 6.5% 4.6% 3.3% 3.2% Ex Energy 0.4% 0.0% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9% France PPI 0.5% 0.1% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 1.8% Ex Energy 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% Italy PPI 0.4% 0.1% 6.7% 5.9% 5.2% 4.0% Ex Energy 0.5% 0.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 4.4% UK PPI 1.3% 1.3% 24.8% 18.7% 7.9% -1.4% Ex Energy 1.0% 0.3% 5.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.2% Euro Area 15 Harmonized PPI excluding Construction The EA 15 countries are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. - Global| Mar 03 2008
UK MFG Sector Makes a Small Bounce
The UK MFG sector rebounded slightly in February although it remains a weak reading for the sector at 52.26. Readings above 50 indicated expansion on this measure. The MFG measure stands in the 61st percentile of its range, a [...]
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