Global| Apr 01 2008European Economic Data Hits Blow Hot and Cold: This Time Cold: German Retail Sales
Summary
While German unemployment fell more than expected in March there has been no relief to German retailers or by association consumers. The growth rate series in the chart is remarkable for its tranquility. German real retail sales are [...]
While German unemployment fell more than expected in March there has been no relief to German retailers or by association consumers. The growth rate series in the chart is remarkable for its tranquility. German real retail sales are simply flat after some turbulence early in 2007 stemming from the VAT tax that shifted sales into 2007 then sucked them out of 2008. Sales are settling down into a very narrow growth band in late 2007 and 2008. Even though Germany continues to post acceptable rates of growth, the consumer has long been forecast as a force to join in to extend the expansion but he simply has not. Indeed, real retail sales ex-auto sales (see table, at the bottom) fell sharply in February. Sales by this measure at the two-month mark in the new quarter are declining at a 1.3% annual rate. Real ex auto sales would have to rise by 1.6% in March to ‘elevate’ the quarter’s sales pace to zero.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAGo | QTR, SAAR |
| Retaill Ex auto | -0.7% | 1.6% | -0.6% | 1.2% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 3.4% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts | #N/A | -3.8% | 2.9% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | -4.7% | #N/A |
| Food, Beverages & Tobacco | -2.2% | 2.1% | -2.3% | -9.1% | -4.5% | -3.9% | -0.3% | -5.1% |
| Clothing footwear | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 21.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 16.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | -1.6% | 0.9% | -0.1% | -3.2% | -5.0% | -3.2% | -0.9% | -1.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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