Global| Feb 25 2008Italy Retail Sales Trends Continue to Erode
Summary
Italy’s retail sales rose in December by a thin 0.1%. The three month advance was at annual rate of 0.4% even below the six month pace of 0.6% and near the Yr/Yr pace of 0.2% - rotten growth rates all. These nominal sales gains [...]
Italy’s retail sales rose in December by a thin 0.1%. The three month advance was at annual rate of 0.4% even below the six month pace of 0.6% and near the Yr/Yr pace of 0.2% - rotten growth rates all. These nominal sales gains clearly imply persisting declines in volume terms. Italy’s nominal retail sales have been in long, slow, declining growth phase.
The chart on the left plots nominal Italy retail sales Vs the EMU volume index for retail sales. The EMU Volume index shows volume plunging at the end of 2007. Italy shows nominal sales steadily eroding with real sales likely falling at an accelerated pace at the end of 2007 since inflation flared at year end as energy prices rose strongly throughout the Euro Area. With the Q4 numbers in, nominal Italian retail sales fell by 0.4% saar in Q4 as food sales advanced by 0.6%. Obviously the Italian consumer is under stress. And that is a theme for the whole of the Euro Area as well.
| Italy Retail Sales Growth | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Q-2-Date |
| Retail Trade | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.0% | -0.4% |
| Food, Beverages & Tobacco | 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Clothing & Fur | 0.5% | -2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | -0.4% | -0.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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