Global| Feb 28 2008UK Consumer Confidence Drops
Summary
The UK economy has dropped and is dropping sharply in early 2008.The index is the weakest it has been in at least 10 years. Over the past 12 months households still rate their own financial situation in the top 80 percentile of its [...]
The UK economy has dropped and is dropping sharply in early
2008.The index is the
weakest it has been in at least 10 years. Over the past 12 months
households still rate their own financial situation in the top 80 percentile of its range the past 10
years. But they rate the time to make major purchases as the worst in
at least 10 years.The
general economic situation is called the worst in 10 years and the CPI
situation rates as the worst in 10 years.The
financial situation over the next 12 months is also rated as the worst
in the past 10 years. Income expectations are the lowest in 10 years
for lower as well as upper income earners.
Like in France, the UK consumers are very disturbed by recent events. Both UK and French consumers rate prices as the worst in some time. Living standards have been eroded in both countries. Despite Europe’s continuing to grow there are obvious risks to the economy with consumers feeling so glum. We see it in recent reports in the US, in the UK, in France as well as in Japan.Consumer spending has lagged in Europe, in the US and in Japan and we see why, as consumers are forced to rate their own situation and that process tells us how bad they feel. Weak growth, financial turmoil, rising energy and food prices are taking a toll on consumers.
| GFK Consumer Survey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of 2Yr | % of 10Yr | |||||
| Feb-08 | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Range | Range | |
| Consumer Confidence | -17 | -13 | -14 | -10 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Current | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 75.0% | 83.3% |
| Major Purchases | -19 | -13 | -14 | -7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Last 12 Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | -1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 37.5% | 44.4% |
| General Econ Sit | -40 | -36 | -36 | -32 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CPI | 82 | 78 | 74 | 73 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Savings | 28 | 30 | 33 | 35 | 22.2% | 75.9% |
| Next 12-Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| General Econ Sit | -29 | -26 | -26 | -21 | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Unemployment | 32 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 50.0% | 70.8% |
| Major Purchases | -22 | -19 | -19 | -20 | 12.5% | 6.7% |
| Savings | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 36.4% | 74.1% |
| By Income | ||||||
| Lower | -24 | -17 | -19 | -16 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Upper | -11 | -12 | -7 | -6 | 5.6% | 5.3% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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