U.S. Mortgage Applications Advance 9.4% in the July 4 Week, the Third Straight W/W Rise
Summary
- Purchase applications +9.4% w/w; refinancing loan applications +9.2% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans falls to 6.95%, the lowest since the Apr. 4 week.
- Average loan size declines for the third time in four weeks.
Mortgage applications rose 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4 after a 2.7% rise in the week ending June 27, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the largest of three consecutive w/w rises and the fourth increase in five weeks, to the index level of 281.6, the highest since the April 4 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house advanced 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week following a 0.1% uptick in the June 27 week and two successive w/w decreases. Applications for loan refinancing rose 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week, up for the fourth week in five, after a 6.5% rise in the previous week.
The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan declined 2bps to 6.95% in the week ending July 4 after falling to 6.97% in the week ending June 27; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 3bps to 6.20% in the July 4 week after declining to 6.23% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans eased to 6.88% in the July 4 week after dropping 16bps to 6.89% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates mentioned were the lowest since their recent lows in the April 4 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM rose 7bps to 6.28% in the July 4 week after decreasing 15bps to 6.21% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.
The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 40.0% of total applications in the week ending July 4 from an 11-week-high 40.1% in the week ending June 27, registering the first w/w fall since the May 23 week; those readings remained well below a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 7.7% in the July 4 week, the third w/w decline in four weeks, after increasing to an eight-week-high 7.8% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.
The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the third week in four, fell 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week following a 3.5% rebound to $391,500 in the June 27 week. The average size of a purchase loan, also down for the third week in four, fell 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week, the lowest level since the January 17 week, after a 1.7% rise to $443,500 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage, up for the fourth week in five, rose 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week, the highest level since the May 2 week, on top of a 10.0% jump to $313,700 in the previous week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s SURVEYS database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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