Global| Feb 28 2008French Morale Slips Then Falls Flat. Worst In Over 18 Years
Summary
French household confidence is at an all time life-of-series low. Living standards for the past 12 months are rated as the worst of this 18-year period.Expected conditions over the next 12 months are rated in the bottom 3 percent of [...]
French household confidence is at an all time life-of-series
low. Living standards for the past 12 months are rated as the worst of
this 18-year period.Expected
conditions over the next 12 months are rated in the bottom 3 percent of
their range. Unemployment still is not widely expected and the
expectations reading stands in the 43rd
percentile of its range. Price developments are in the top of their 18
range when assessed over the past 12 months but only in their 40th
percentile looking forward. The environment for spending is weak, in
the 27th percentile of its historic range. And
the financial situation is sub par. The current financial situation is
rated at the 47th percentile of its range, a
moderate step below the midpoint (50). But the past 12 months are rated
in the bottom 9 percent of its range and the next 12 months are rated
in the bottom 7 percent of its range. Clearly consumers are having a
great difficulty and are unsure of the future and generally more
pessimistic.
| INSEE Household Monthly Survey | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
| Feb 08 |
Jan 08 |
Dec 07 |
Nov 07 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Household Confidence | -35 | -34 | -30 | -29 | 0.0 | 215 | 10 | -35 | 45 | -17 |
| Living Standards | ||||||||||
| past 12 Mos | -68 | -65 | -62 | -60 | 0.0 | 215 | 18 | -68 | 86 | -37 |
| Next 12-Mos | -42 | -44 | -32 | -36 | 3.4 | 212 | 15 | -44 | 59 | -18 |
| Unemployment: Next 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 43.6 | 160 | 73 | -37 | 110 | 29 |
| Price Developments | ||||||||||
| Past 12Mo | 41 | 37 | 40 | 31 | 100.0 | 1 | 41 | -57 | 98 | -19 |
| Next 12-Mos | -23 | -11 | -23 | -8 | 40.7 | 34 | 31 | -60 | 91 | -34 |
| Savings | ||||||||||
| Favorable to save | 24 | 28 | 29 | 26 | 55.6 | 100 | 40 | 4 | 36 | 23 |
| Ability to save Next 12 | -12 | -12 | -12 | -13 | 37.9 | 145 | 6 | -23 | 29 | -8 |
| Spending | ||||||||||
| Favorable for major purchase | -26 | -24 | -23 | -19 | 27.6 | 187 | 16 | -42 | 58 | -12 |
| Financial Situation | ||||||||||
| Current | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 47.6 | 83 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 12 |
| Past 12 MOs | -25 | -25 | -23 | -20 | 9.1 | 203 | -5 | -27 | 22 | -16 |
| Next 12-Mos | -14 | -14 | -10 | -9 | 7.4 | 213 | 11 | -16 | 27 | 0 |
| Number of observations in the period: 218 | ||||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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