Robert Brusca

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<p><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080304i.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353"><span></span></p>
<p></p>
</span>EMU GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q4 bringing its
year/year growth down to 2.2% from 2.6% in 2007-Q3.<span style="">
</span>Private consumption spending fell by 0.3% at an annual
rate. Domestic demand in total was flat in the quarter and is rising at
a 1.9% annual rate over four quarters.<span style=""> </span>Export
growth slowed sharply in the quarter and is showing a decline in its
year-over-year rate.<span style=""> </span>Imports
fell in Q4 and their growth also has been moderating in 2007.<span style=""> </span>Euro growth shows broad based
slowing, but growth that is still holding up. Private consumption is
weak and that remains a sticking point within the EMU.
<p></p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="11" scope="col"> <b>European
GDP EU-13</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>GDP</td>
<td colspan="2">Consumption</td>
<td colspan="3">Capital Formation</td>
<td colspan="3">Trade</td>
<td>Domestic<br>
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>Public</td>
<td>Total</td>
<td>Excl<br>
Housing</td>
<td>Housing</td>
<td>X-M:<br>
Bil Euros</td>
<td>Exports</td>
<td>Imports</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol"><b>% Change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q
Change in Bil of Euros</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q4-07</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q3-07</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q2-07</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q1-07</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>14.2%</td>
<td>16.6%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol"><b>%
Change Yr/Yr; X-M is
Yr/Yr Change in Gap in Bil of Euros</b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q4-07</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q3-07</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q2-07</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>8.8</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Q1-07</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">5-Yrs</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>na</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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EMU GDP Growth Decelerates

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Existing home sales declined 2.7% (0.0% y/y) to 3.93 million (SAAR) in June after increasing 1.0% in May to 4.04 million, revised from 4.03 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales in April were unrevised at 4.00 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.00 million unit sales in June. Last month’s sales decline accompanied an unchanged effective 30-year mortgage interest rate of 6.82% in June. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 3.0% (+0.6% y/y) during June to 3.57 million units after a 1.4% increase to 3.68 million in May and a 0.3% decline to 3.63 million in April. Sales of condos and co-ops held steady (-5.3% y/y) at 360,000 after falling 2.7% in May.

Sales were mixed across the country last month. Sales in the Northeast declined 8.0% (-4.2% y/y) to 460,000 following a 4.2% May increase. Sales in the Midwest fell 4.0% (+2.2% y/y) to 950,000 after rising 2.1% in May. Sales in the South were off 2.2% (1.7% y/y) to 1.81 million and reversed the May gain to 1.85 million. Rising by 1.4% (-4.1% y/y) to 710,000 were sales in the West after falling 5.4% in May.

The median price average of all existing homes (NSA) strengthened 2.7% (2.0% y/y) to a record $435,300 in June, up for the fifth straight month. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 3.0% (2.0% y/y) to $441,500 in June and the median price of condos & co-ops improved 0.7% (0.8% y/y) to $374,500 last month. Prices for homes in the West rose 1.0% both m/m and y/y to $636,100 while prices in the Northeast increased 5.9% (4.2% y/y) to $543,300. In the South, prices rose 1.5% (0.3% y/y) to $374,500 while in the Midwest, home prices strengthened 3.2% (3.4% y/y) to $337,600.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) fell 0.6% (+15.9% y/y) to 1.53 million units in June after five straight months of strong increase. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.7 months, the highest level in nine years, up from a low of 1.6 months in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales are lowest in nine months.
- Decline spreads throughout country except in West.
- Median sales price strengthens to record high.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in June; Home Prices Set Record

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Mortgage applications increased 0.8% (22.1% y/y) in the week ending July 18, after falling 10.0% the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The increase was the fourth in the last five weeks. Applications for loans to purchase a home increased 3.4% (22.5% y/y) last week, following an 11.8% decline in the week of July 11. Applications for loan refinancing declined 2.6% (+21.6% y/y) in the week of July 18 after falling 7.4% in the prior week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged up to 7.02% in the week ending July 18, from 7.00% in the week ending July 11. It was increased from a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024, but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages held steady at 6.32% in the latest week. It has risen from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans of 6.95% last week compared to 6.94% one week earlier. It was up from a low of 6.57% in the week of September 13, 2024. The rate on a 5-year ARM declined to 6.12% after rising to 6.24% in the week of July 13. It was above a low of 5.84% in the week of September 18, 2024.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 39.6% of total applications in the week ending July 18 from 41.1% in the prior week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.20% in the week of July 18 from 7.10% in the prior week.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 1.0% (+0.6% y/y) to $371,800 in the week of July 18, following a 2.8% decline in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan moved 0.5% lower both m/m and y/y to $426,700 last week, down for the third straight week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 3.8% (+3.0% y/y) to $287,900 in the latest week, after falling 5.6% in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications increase sharply while loan refinancing falls.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loan increases minimally.
- Average loan size declines for fifth week in last six.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Last Week

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades averaged $3.25 per gallon (-9.5% y/y) last week for the third straight week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to $3.81 per gallon (0.9% y/y) in the week of July 21 after rising slightly to $3.76 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to $66.95 per barrel (-18.8% y/y) in the week ended July 18. The decline followed the prior week’s rise to $67.93 per barrel, but prices remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $67.20 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $70.66 per barrel (-17.9% y/y) in the week of July 18 after rising to $71.77 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $71.92 yesterday.

Natural gas prices jumped to an average $3.39/mmbtu (67.8% y/y) in the week ended July 18, the highest level since the second week of April, after easing to an average $3.17/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.50 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending July 11 following a 1.0% y/y easing in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending July 11 after a 1.6% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending July 11 after a 1.1% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.1% y/y in the week ending July 11 after a 0.1% y/y dip in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 27.0% y/y in the week of July 11, after a 20.5% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week of July 4 after the same y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 25.9 days in the week of July 11 from 25.0 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil eased to 24.9 days in the week of July 11 from 25.1 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices hold steady.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas prices strengthen.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

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The **Industrial Materials Price Index** from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 0.6% (0.4% y/y) during the last four-week period after rising 1.6% in the prior four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** group prices increased 1.7% (9.7% y/y) in the latest four week period. The price of tallow (used in the soap industry) jumped 10.6% (15.7% y/y) in four weeks. Framing lumber prices gained 5.8% (37.6% y/y) but natural rubber prices fell 2.9% (+13.0% y/y) in four weeks.

Prices in the **Metals** group strengthened 1.4% (-2.9% y/y) over the most recent four weeks. Zinc prices jumped 4.0% (-4.6% y/y) and tin prices rose 2.7% (0.4% y/y). Aluminum prices increased 2.4% (8.4% y/y) over four weeks while steel scrap prices gained 1.8% (-11.2% y/y). Lead prices rose 0.4% (-8.7% y/y) and copper scrap prices fell 1.8% (+0.2% y/y) during the last four week period.

Prices in the **Textile** group edged 0.3% higher (1.6% y/y) during the last four weeks. Cotton prices rose 0.8% in that same period and 2.5% y/y. Burlap costs improved 2.0% in four weeks and 11.4% y/y.

**Crude Oil & Benzene** group prices weakened 2.4% (-13.8% y/y) in the latest four week period. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 9.2% to $67.27 per barrel and remained 18.0% lower y/y. It fell to a low of $58.50 per barrel in the second week of May. The cost of the petrol-chemical benzene, used for making plastics & synthetic fibers, strengthened 6.2% (-31.7% y/y). Excluding crude oil, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.3% (1.6% y/y) during the last four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

**Summer of ’25: The Data** from N.Y. Federal Reserve President & CEO John C. Williams is available [here](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250716).

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- Prices movement by category is mixed.
- Lumber & metals prices strengthen.
- Crude oil prices decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodities Prices Continue to 	Rise in Latest Four Weeks

European GDP EU-13
	GDP	Consumption		Capital Formation			Trade			Domestic Demand
		Private	Public	Total	Excl Housing	Housing	X-M: Bil Euros	Exports	Imports
% Change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q Change in Bil of Euros
Q4-07	1.5%	-0.3%	-0.3%	1.0%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	2.2%	-1.5%	0.0%
Q3-07	3.0%	2.0%	2.7%	8.7%	10.4%	3.3%	-2.3	8.6%	10.3%	3.6%
Q2-07	1.1%	2.5%	0.7%	-5.6%	-5.7%	-5.5%	5.0	3.2%	1.2%	0.3%
Q1-07	3.2%	0.2%	4.4%	14.2%	16.6%	7.1%	-2.7	3.7%	5.7%	4.0%
% Change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr Change in Gap in Bil of Euros
Q4-07	2.2%	1.1%	1.8%	4.3%	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	4.4%	3.8%	1.9%
Q3-07	2.6%	1.6%	2.2%	3.3%	3.7%	2.1%	11.0	7.1%	5.9%	2.1%
Q2-07	2.4%	1.6%	2.1%	3.1%	3.4%	2.4%	8.8	5.8%	5.0%	2.0%
Q1-07	3.1%	1.4%	2.2%	7.5%	7.8%	6.6%	6.6	6.6%	6.0%	2.9%
5-Yrs	2.0%	1.5%	1.7%	3.8%	#N/A	#N/A	na	5.4%	5.5%	2.0%

EMU GDP Growth Decelerates

Robert Brusca

More Economy in Brief

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in June; Home Prices Set Record

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Higher Last Week

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

FIBER: Industrial Commodities Prices Continue to Rise in Latest Four Weeks