Global| Mar 03 2008Inflation Continues to be too Strong in EMU in February
Summary
The new FLASH estimate of EMU inflation stands at 3.2% year/year in February 2008 the same pace as in January. Germany's own headline rate rose by 0.2% in February and that is the rate implied by the new 3.2% for all of EMU (no [...]
The new FLASH estimate of EMU inflation stands at 3.2%
year/year in February 2008 the same pace as in January.
Germany's own headline rate rose by 0.2% in February and
that is the rate implied by the new 3.2% for all of EMU (no month/month
rate is released but one can be calculated form the released data but
with less overall precision). Even
with flaring oil prices headline inflation is not accelerating over the
sequential monthly rates. AT 2.5% the 3-month pace is much better than
the 4.3% over six months and 3.2% year/year but still above the ECB’s
desired ceiling of 2%. German inflation data which are up-to-date show
the same dampening of inflation trends. Italy does not.
| Trends in EMU HICP; Flash Index | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % month/month | % saar | ||||||
| Feb-08 | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| EMU-13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Core | #N/A | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Goods | #N/A | -0.5% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Services | #N/A | -0.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| HICP | |||||||
| Germany | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| France | #N/A | 0.3% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Italy | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| Spain | #N/A | 0.2% | 0.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Core:xFE&A | |||||||
| Blue shaded area data trail by one month | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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