Global| Mar 05 2008Retail Sales and Spending Plans in EMU: Deceleration
Summary
January Euro Area retail sales fell 1% in volume terms. Over three months growth has slowed marginally and is clinging in real terms to a 1% rate of growth. The volume of spending on food has picked up in the recent three months after [...]
January Euro Area retail sales fell 1% in volume terms. Over three months growth has slowed marginally and is clinging in real terms to a 1% rate of growth. The volume of spending on food has picked up in the recent three months after negative growth rates of six and 12 months despite climbing prices. The volume of spending on nonfood items has steadily deteriorated: 12-month to 6-month to 3-month. This is matter of concern. Three of four EU countries depicted in the table details show sales decelerating in the recent three-month period. I say three since I include Italy that only offers nominal figures. Once inflation is subtracted surely Italy with nominal sales already so weak will add to the story of retail weakness in EMU. France shows some resilience. The UK, while showing some slowing, also shows some growth consumer is not about to hold growth aloft in the Euro Area. The purchase plans plotted in the chart underscore that fact of life.
| Euro Area 15 Retail Sales Volume | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | 12-Mo | |
| Total | 0.4% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -1.1% | -1.4% | 0.1% |
| Food | 0.6% | -0.5% | -0.7% | -2.8% | -1.4% | -0.9% |
| Nonfood | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 0.0% | -1.6% | 0.7% |
| Textiles | #N/A | 0.3% | -0.6% | -13.0% | -2.0% | -0.6% |
| HH Goods | #N/A | 0.6% | -0.8% | -2.7% | -2.6% | -2.3% |
| Books news, etc | #N/A | -0.6% | 0.1% | -1.2% | -1.7% | 0.4% |
| Pharma | #N/A | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| Other Nonspecialized stores | #N/A | -0.2% | -0.6% | -3.0% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| Mail Order | #N/A | 2.8% | -1.3% | 4.1% | 1.0% | -1.2% |
| Nonfood Country detail (volume) | ||||||
| Germany | 0.9% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.3% | -4.0% | 2.2% |
| France | -0.4% | 1.1% | -0.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.2% |
| Italy (Total; Value) | #N/A | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| UK (EU) | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% |
| Shaded areas calculated on a one-month lag due to lagging data. | ||||||
| The EA 15 countries are Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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