Geopolitical news is starting to take its toll on European Monetary Union data. But we are not seeing these effects in June trade flows. The confrontation in Ukraine began six months ago, but the imposition of sanctions is a much more [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Aug 18 2014EMU Trade Posts Lower Surplus
- Global| Aug 15 2014
Finland's Trade Balance Turns Negative Again
With Russian sanctions biting, we saw the first impact on European growth in the recent GDP figures. Germany is now the largest trading partner with Russia in the European Monetary Union, having just surpassed Finland. However, [...]
- Global| Aug 14 2014
EMU GDP Edges Higher
GDP growth in the European Monetary Union (seasonally adjusted and working day adjusted) barely edged higher in Q2 2014, rising by 0.2%. The year-over-year figures show a deceleration in the growth rate to 0.7% in Q2 2014 from 0.9% in [...]
- Global| Aug 13 2014
EMU IP Weakens, Adding to Weakness Elsewhere
The worries about European growth are for good reason. Total EMU industrial production excluding construction fell by 0.3% in June after a 1.1% decline in May. In the quarter, it's rising at a 0.1% annual rate. That's pretty thin [...]
- Global| Aug 12 2014
ZEW Index Drops Sharply
Germany's ZEW current index fell sharply in August to 44.3 from 61.8 in July. The current index had peaked at 67.7 in June in this cycle. It's now on a two-month drop. Expectations, the more closely watched component, fell to 8.6 in [...]
- Global| Aug 11 2014
OECD LEIs Are Mostly Flat; Should They Be Even Worse?
The OECD's leading economic indicator for June posted a reading of 100.5, the same as it's been for the last eight months. The OECD portrays this as indicating ongoing expansion. However, there clearly is no acceleration in the cards. [...]
- Global| Aug 08 2014
German Trade Flows Seem to Revive
German activity data have been weakening recently. There is speculation that the sanctions on Russia are an important factor. But trade data for June show some rebound in German trade flows. Exports rose 0.9% in June as imports [...]
- Global| Aug 07 2014
German Industrial Output Makes Weak Rebound
Industrial production in Germany in June rose by 0.3%, only partly restoring May's 1.7% drop. German industrial output is falling over three months and six months. The pace of decline is gathering steam over shorter horizons. All [...]
- Global| Aug 06 2014
German Orders Sink as Italy Slips into Recession
It has not been a good day for statistics out of Europe. Italy has just unexpectedly recorded its second consecutive drop in quarterly GDP, giving way to cries of recession. Germany has reported out a large drop in orders and the [...]
- Global| Aug 05 2014
EMU Total PMIs Edge Higher
In July the composite PMI for the European Monetary Union rose to 53.8 from June's 52.8. This represents a slight backtracking from the preliminary value. Moving averages over 12 months, six months and three months show progress from [...]
- Global| Aug 04 2014
EMU PPI Slows Its Decline; Has It Begun a Reversal?
The EMU producer price index rose by 0.2% in June as its year-over-year drop was cut to just -0.1%. The trend for the PPI is not absolutely clear from the sequential growth rates since there is a speedup drop from 12 months to six [...]
- Global| Aug 01 2014
Manufacturing Stays Subdued in Europe in July
The Markit EMU manufacturing PMI was flat in July at 51.8. At that level the EMU metric stands in the 61st percentile in its historic queue. Germany, the usual manufacturing leader in Europe, has its manufacturing PMI in the fifth [...]
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