As the date for Brexit approaches, the impact from the collision has preceded its arrival! GDP, unexpectedly, has fallen in Q2. Newly minted PM Boris Johnson has said that preparing for a hard Brexit is his top priority. Preparation [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Aug 09 2019U.K. GDP Contracts as Brexit Beckons
- Global| Aug 08 2019
OECD LEIs Continue to Decay
All of the OECD groups show declines in June and for the six months ended in June…all show declines for the previous six months as well. It is a well-flagged entrenched slowdown. For data by country, all ten in the table show LEI [...]
- Global| Aug 07 2019
German IP Drops Again
In June, German manufacturing output declined on all fronts. Consumer goods output declined. Intermediate goods output declined. The output of capital goods declined. It makes you nostalgic for the good only days, like yesterday, when [...]
- Global| Aug 06 2019
German Orders Break Out of Their Torpor for One Month; Hold the Confetti
German orders jumped for joy in June, tempering a period of order weakness and declines. The rise is all on the back of 'foreign orders' that spurted by 5% one month after a 3.9% decline. That fact may temper any enthusiasm by itself. [...]
- Global| Aug 01 2019
PMIs Show Preponderant Weakness and Reveal Risks
The manufacturing PMIs show a great deal of weakness. The quarterly data show clear weakness as the percentage of countries with diffusion readings improving (momentum improving…) is 26% or less over three months, six months and 12 [...]
- Global| Jul 31 2019
East Meets West... At Slower Pace; All Early EMU GDP Reporters Show Slowing/China'S MFG Contracts
Euro area GDP slowed in Q2 to a Q/Q pace of less than 1%. Year-over-year growth in the EMU, at 1.1%, is the weakest since Q4 2013. And EMU inflation in July is the lowest it has been year-over-year since late-2016. This combination is [...]
- Global| Jul 30 2019
German Confidence Slips for the Third Month in a Row
German confidence slipped lower for the third month in a row, continuing a run of weakening that began after February 2018 and despite a failed attempt at rebounding in February 2019. There is an expedited trail of decay since March [...]
- Global| Jul 29 2019
Japan's Retail Sales Draw A Blank
Japan's economy is in the process of navigating a number of potentially wicked twists and turns of fate, some of its own making and some thrust upon it in a region gone topsy turvy. For now retail sales are edging higher year-on-year [...]
- Global| Jul 26 2019
EMU Member PPI Trends...and the U.K.
PPI developments once again underscore that inflation pressure is not building in the EMU. Mario Draghi is getting progressively more concerned about the European situation and condition. Draghi's term is coming to an end and he is [...]
- Global| Jul 25 2019
German IFO Gauge Sinks
The IFO climate gauge has fallen to its weakest reading since July 2013. On the two ranking columns in the table, we see it has the lowest reading since January 2015, but it has a much less weak if still equivocal reading with a near- [...]
- Global| Jul 24 2019
EMU 'Flash' PMIs Show Deepening Manufacturing Weakness
In manufacturing growth is hanging on by its fingernails or has already lost its purchase to decline. Private sector PMI raw diffusion gauges are below the value of 52 across the board. Ranked on data back to January 2015, the HIGHEST [...]
- Global| Jul 23 2019
U.K. CBI Survey-Weaker with Improved Outlook at Least on Paper; Reality May Be Grimmer Than It Seems
A plunge in orders vs. a slight uptick in expected output ahead Note that sustained divergences between these two series simply do not exist. Boris 'Hard-Brexit' Johnson, the new leader of the Conservative Party, will be the new Prime [...]
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