Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223c.jpg" width="353">
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell another 0.6% last week but slight decline during the last two weeks only tempered earlier gains which lifted the average in February 11.1% above January.
Last week&#39;s decline was due to a 1.3% drop in purchase applications. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales. Purchase applications in February are down 0.3% versus January.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following several weeks of strong gain and in February are 25.6% higher than in January.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.92% versus 5.75% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.52% last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/11/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>727.9</td>
<td>732.3</td>
<td>-14.8%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>417.8</td>
<td>423.3</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,532.0</td>
<td>2,530.1</td>
<td>-24.7%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell another 0.6% last week but slight decline during the last two weeks only tempered earlier gains which lifted the average in February 11.1% above January. Last [...]

Mortgage Applications Off Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223b.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales dipped 0.1% last week and reversed the prior week&#39;s up tick according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
Sales in February are 0.7% ahead of the January average which rose 0.9% from December.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.2 in the latest week (+0.5% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>445.6</td>
<td>446.2</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Chain store sales dipped 0.1% last week and reversed the prior week's up tick according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. Sales in February are 0.7% ahead of the January average which rose 0.9% from [...]

Chain Store Sales Dipped

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose a modest 0.1% in January following an upwardly revised no change the month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase for last month.
Prices less food &amp; energy rose the same 0.2% in January as during the prior three months and the gain matched expectations
&quot;Core&quot; commodities prices posted a 0.3% increase, one of the larger increases of the last three years, led by a 1.9% (4.4% y/y) spurt in tobacco prices and a 0.7% (1.3% y/y) gain in new vehicle prices. Apparel prices rose 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) and furniture prices rose 0.1% (0.6% y/y). Personal computer prices rose 0.7% (NSA, -13.6% y/y).
Services prices less energy rose 0.2% for the fourth consecutive month. Shelter prices rose a stable 0.2% (2.7% y/y), medical care services inflation also was stable at a firm 0.4% (5.0% y/y) but public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month (-1.0% y/y). School tuition rose 0.3% (6.5% y/y).
Energy prices fell for the second consecutive month, pulled lower by a 2.1% (+14.3% y/y) decline in gasoline prices. In February gasoline prices are 4.0% higher than in January and have reversed about half of the decline since November. Fuel oil prices fell 4.9% last month (+20.9% y/y) and natural gas &amp; electricity prices rose 0.1% (+5.9% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.1%, the gain held back by a 4.6% drop (+4.6% y/y) in fruit &amp; vegetable prices.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.2% and offset the revised 0.2% December decline. Core chain prices rose for the first time since October.
Real Effects of Inflation Through the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr355.pdf"> here</a>.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose a modest 0.1% in January following an upwardly revised no change the month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase for last month. Prices less food & energy rose the same 0.2% in [...]

Consumer Prices Rose As Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Prices (CPI-U) rose a modest 0.1% in January following an upwardly revised no change the month earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% increase for last month.
Prices less food &amp; energy rose the same 0.2% in January as during the prior three months and the gain matched expectations
&quot;Core&quot; commodities prices posted a 0.3% increase, one of the larger increases of the last three years, led by a 1.9% (4.4% y/y) spurt in tobacco prices and a 0.7% (1.3% y/y) gain in new vehicle prices. Apparel prices rose 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) and furniture prices rose 0.1% (0.6% y/y). Personal computer prices rose 0.7% (NSA, -13.6% y/y).
Services prices less energy rose 0.2% for the fourth consecutive month. Shelter prices rose a stable 0.2% (2.7% y/y), medical care services inflation also was stable at a firm 0.4% (5.0% y/y) but public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month (-1.0% y/y). School tuition rose 0.3% (6.5% y/y).
Energy prices fell for the second consecutive month, pulled lower by a 2.1% (+14.3% y/y) decline in gasoline prices. In February gasoline prices are 4.0% higher than in January and have reversed about half of the decline since November. Fuel oil prices fell 4.9% last month (+20.9% y/y) and natural gas &amp; electricity prices rose 0.1% (+5.9% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.1%, the gain held back by a 4.6% drop (+4.6% y/y) in fruit &amp; vegetable prices.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, rose 0.2% and offset the revised 0.2% December decline. Core chain prices rose for the first time since October.
Real Effects of Inflation Through the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr355.pdf"> here</a>.

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Dipped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 23, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223b.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales dipped 0.1% last week and reversed the prior week&#39;s up tick according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
Sales in February are 0.7% ahead of the January average which rose 0.9% from December.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC fell 0.2 in the latest week (+0.5% y/y).
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/19/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/12/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>445.6</td>
<td>446.2</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Off Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 23, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050223c.jpg" width="353">
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell another 0.6% last week but slight decline during the last two weeks only tempered earlier gains which lifted the average in February 11.1% above January.
Last week&#39;s decline was due to a 1.3% drop in purchase applications. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales. Purchase applications in February are down 0.3% versus January.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following several weeks of strong gain and in February are 25.6% higher than in January.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage rose to 5.92% versus 5.75% the prior week. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.52% last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/11/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>727.9</td>
<td>732.3</td>
<td>-14.8%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>417.8</td>
<td>423.3</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,532.0</td>
<td>2,530.1</td>
<td>-24.7%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222d.jpg" width="353">
Data released today show that Russian Gross Domestic Product rose 7.14% in real terms in 2004, marginally less than the 7.35% rise in 2003.
Growth in consumption accelerated to a 9.20% increase from a 6.24% rise in 2003. Imports, perhaps in part at least, due to the rise in consumption, rose sharply. They were up 23.92 % from the 17.66% rise in 2003. The 13.14% rise in exports in 2004 was little changed from the 12.47% of 2003. The year to year growth in exports and imports is shown in the first chart. The growth in Gross fixed investment was 10.83% last year compared to 12.47% in the previous year. Inventory accumulation was a positive, if relatively small, factor in the rise of GDP. Total GDP for the year amounted to 16,779 billion rubles or $535.billion. Per capita GDP in dollar terms was a little more than $4000 in 2004.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222c.jpg" width="353">
Although inflation has come down from extremely high levels of 2000, it continues to be high. The GDP deflator rose 18.64% in 2004, up from 13.67% in 2003. The second chart shows the rate of increase in real GDP and in the GDP deflator.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMERGECW/@EB/@EB.HTM">GDP (Bil. 2000 Rubles)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q4 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q3&nbsp;04</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q/Q %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y &nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col"> 2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gross Domestic Product</td>
<td>2371.8</td>
<td>2307.2</td>
<td>2224.9</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>9.60</td>
<td>7.14</td>
<td>7.35</td>
<td>4.74</td>
<td>5.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumption</td>
<td>1541.5</td>
<td>1498.6</td>
<td>1402.9</td>
<td>2.86</td>
<td>9.88</td>
<td>9.20</td>
<td>6.24</td>
<td>7.02</td>
<td>6.83</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Household</td>
<td>1225.3</td>
<td>1184.3</td>
<td>1093.0</td>
<td>3.46</td>
<td>12.10</td>
<td>11.26</td>
<td>7.51</td>
<td>8.50</td>
<td>9.50&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Government</td>
<td>295.6</td>
<td>294.2</td>
<td>289.2</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>5.21</td>
<td>2.35</td>
<td>2.47</td>
<td>2.60</td>
<td>-0.78</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Non Profit Institutions Serving Households</td>
<td>20.6</td>
<td>20.1</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>2.49</td>
<td>-0.48</td>
<td>-0.49</td>
<td>1.11</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>1.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Gross Capital Formation</td>
<td>448.3</td>
<td>435.2</td>
<td>414.9</td>
<td>2.99</td>
<td>8.05</td>
<td>10.83</td>
<td>12.94</td>
<td>2.78</td>
<td>10.25</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Change</td>
<td>91.9</td>
<td>36.3</td>
<td>76.6</td>
<td>55.6*</td>
<td>15.3*</td>
<td>73.9*</td>
<td>26.1*</td>
<td>-79.5*</td>
<td>102.3*</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Exports</td>
<td>291.7</td>
<td>292.0</td>
<td>324.5</td>
<td>-0.3*</td>
<td>-32.8*</td>
<td>-125.9*</td>
<td>39.8*</td>
<td>10.4*</td>
<td>-192.9*</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>1237.0</td>
<td>1185.8</td>
<td>1080.0</td>
<td>3.90</td>
<td>14.07</td>
<td>13.14</td>
<td>12.47</td>
<td>10.26</td>
<td>4.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>940.3</td>
<td>893.8</td>
<td>755.5</td>
<td>5.20</td>
<td>24.46</td>
<td>23.92</td>
<td>17.66</td>
<td>14.58</td>
<td>18.72</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Deflator (2000=100)</td>
<td>194.6</td>
<td>180.33</td>
<td>161.03</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>20.86</td>
<td>18.64</td>
<td>13.67</td>
<td>15.47</td>
<td>19.49</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Data released today show that Russian Gross Domestic Product rose 7.14% in real terms in 2004, marginally less than the 7.35% rise in 2003. Growth in consumption accelerated to a 9.20% increase from a 6.24% rise in 2003. Imports, [...]

Russia Chalks Up Another 7+% Real Growth in 2004: Inflation Accelerates

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence slipped in February to 104.0 from an upwardly revised January level of 105.1. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 103.3.
The index of consumer expectations fell for the second consecutive month (+4.1% y/y). The present situation index added another 3.8% to strong gains in the prior three months (+39.7% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Perceptions of the job market improved further. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 22.6% of survey participants, the lowest percentage since May 2002.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/spf/survq105.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>105.1</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence slipped in February to 104.0 from an upwardly revised January level of 105.1. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 103.3. The index of consumer expectations fell for the [...]

Consumer Confidence Slipped

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222a.jpg" width="353">
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) resumed an up trend after stuttering around the new year. Flat in the latest week, the index in February is up 1.2% from January and the six month growth rate improved to +1.9%, its best since early July.
Higher stock and commodity prices as well as lower interest rates offset fewer new mortgage applications in the latest week.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the six-month growth in the ECRI leading index of the US economy and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The ECRI Leading Index&#39;s recent pattern generally mirrors the Conference Board&#39;s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, with a slight lead. Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Conference Board Index but there has been a 70% correlation between the y/y percent change in the two series over the last 10 years.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months.
The latest from ECRI is available <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/">here</a>.
Productivity and Inflation from Janet L. Yellen, President &amp; CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-04.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI Leading Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/11/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/04/05</th>
<th scope="col">Growth Rate</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Weekly</td>
<td>134.3</td>
<td>134.3</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jan</td>
<td>Dec</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly</td>
<td>132.7</td>
<td>133.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) resumed an up trend after stuttering around the new year. Flat in the latest week, the index in February is up 1.2% from January and the six [...]

ECRI U.S. Leading Index Trending Higher

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222a.jpg" width="353">
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) resumed an up trend after stuttering around the new year. Flat in the latest week, the index in February is up 1.2% from January and the six month growth rate improved to +1.9%, its best since early July.
Higher stock and commodity prices as well as lower interest rates offset fewer new mortgage applications in the latest week.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the six-month growth in the ECRI leading index of the US economy and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The ECRI Leading Index&#39;s recent pattern generally mirrors the Conference Board&#39;s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, with a slight lead. Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Conference Board Index but there has been a 70% correlation between the y/y percent change in the two series over the last 10 years.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months.
The latest from ECRI is available <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/">here</a>.
Productivity and Inflation from Janet L. Yellen, President &amp; CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-04.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI Leading Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/11/05</th>
<th scope="col">02/04/05</th>
<th scope="col">Growth Rate</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Weekly</td>
<td>134.3</td>
<td>134.3</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jan</td>
<td>Dec</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly</td>
<td>132.7</td>
<td>133.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Slipped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> February 22, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050222b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence slipped in February to 104.0 from an upwardly revised January level of 105.1. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 103.3.
The index of consumer expectations fell for the second consecutive month (+4.1% y/y). The present situation index added another 3.8% to strong gains in the prior three months (+39.7% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Perceptions of the job market improved further. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 22.6% of survey participants, the lowest percentage since May 2002.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/spf/survq105.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>105.1</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

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Total housing starts increased 5.7% (-0.6% y/y) during April to 1.360 million units (SAAR) after falling 16.8% in March to 1.287 million units, revised from 1.321 million. Starts in February rose a little-revised 12.4% to 1.546 million units. Starts remained 24.6% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.420 million starts in April.

Housing starts by type were mixed last month. Starts of single-family units eased 0.4% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.031 million after declining 8.7% in March to 1.035 million, revised from 1.022 million. They reached a high of 1.286 units in December 2020. Multi-family starts increased 30.6% (-33.1% y/y) in April to 329,000 after falling 38.8% to 252,000 in March, revised from 299,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Regional activity was mixed in April. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 22.6% (-43.8% y/y) to 72,000 units after declining 21.8% in March and 10.5% in February. Starts in the Midwest rose 19.1% (3.4% y/y) to 181,000 following a 36.4% March decline. Starts in the South improved 10.1% (4.9% y/y) to 799,000 after a 15.9% March decline. In the West, starts fell 2.5% (+1.7% y/y) to 308,000 after declining in each of the prior three months.

Building permits declined 3.0% (-2.0% y/y) in April 1.440 million units after falling 5.0% to 1.485 million in March, revised from 1.458 million. It was the lowest level of permits since December 2022. Single-family permits eased 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) to 976,000 in April following a 4.2% March decline and a 0.4% February slip. Multi-family permits weakened 7.4% (-21.9% y/y) to 464,000, after falling 6.5% in March.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Single-family starts decline but multi-family surge.
- Starts are mixed throughout the country.
- Building permits fall to lowest level in over one year.


U.S. Housing Starts Rise Modestly in April; Building Permits Fall

Sandy Batten

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240516s2.jpg

Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March and 0.4% lower than a year ago. The previously released 0.4% rise in March was revised down to a meager 0.1% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% increase in production last month. Manufacturing production slumped 0.3% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in March (initially reported as 0.5%). 

Mining activity declined for the third time in the past four months, falling 0.6% (-1.3% /y) following an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m decline in March (previously -1.4% m/m). Utilities output was the only positive part of industrial activity in April, rising 2.8% m/m (+2.3% y/y) on top of a downwardly revised 1.6% monthly gain in March (previously 2.0% m/m).

Amid the monthly volatility, manufacturing output has been relatively flat over the past nine months. In fact, the index level in April was 99.4, exactly the same as in August 2023. The manufacturing sector has been one of the most adversely affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Since April 2022 (just after the Fed initiated it rate hikes in March 2022), manufacturing output has fallen 1.4%. Within the manufacturing sector in April, durable goods production fell 0.5% m/m, its first monthly decline in three months, led by a 2.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle production and a 1.9% m/m drop in the production of electrical equipment and appliances. Production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.2% monthly increase in March. Production of selected high-technology industries increased 1.0% m/m. By contrast, petroleum and coal products output slumped 4.4%m/m, the first monthly decline in three months.

Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles slipped 01% m/m in April after being unchanged in March. Manufacturing excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.1% monthly gain in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles decreased 0.2% m/m, its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Production of consumer goods inched up 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Output of business equipment fell 0.5% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. 

Production of construction supplies fell 1.0% m/m in April, the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in April, just offsetting a 0.1% m/m decline in March.

Total capacity utilization slipped to 78.4% in April from a slightly upward revised 78.5% in March (previously 78.4%). The April reading was exactly as expected by the Actions Economics Forecast Survey. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing fell significantly to 76.9% from 77.2%. By contrast, the capacity rate for utilities rose to 71.0 from 69.2.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- IP was unchanged in April with manufacturing falling 0.3% m/m
- Manufacturing decline led by 2.0% m/m drop in motor vehicle output
- Mining fell for the third month of the past four
- Capacity utilization slipped to 78.4%


U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in April

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Import prices for all goods rose 0.9% (NSA) in April after a 0.6% March gain, revised from 0.4%, and a 0.2% February increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y change of 1.1% followed 12-month price declines all through 2023. 

Export prices increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from 0.3%, and a minimally revised 0.7% February rise. A 0.2% price gain had been expected. These gains also followed a 0.7% January increase. The 1.0% y/y decline compared to an 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year. 

The monthly rise in April import prices was led by a 2.9% increase (5.2% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after they surged 6.7% in March. The April increase was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The increase in imported petroleum costs was accompanied by a 9.2% decline in natural gas prices, off 42.5% y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% March increase. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% decline while nonauto consumer goods prices also rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 0.3% in March. 

The increase in April export prices included a 0.9% decline (-10.2% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which added to a 1.3% March drop . Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.7% (0.1% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain. Export prices of industrial supplies & materials rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of firm gain. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices strengthened 0.8% (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. A 0.1% uptick (-1.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices followed a 0.4% March rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 0.7% last month (-10.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in March. 

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database. 


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- Import prices rise for fourth consecutive month.
- Excluding fuels, import prices edge up for sixth straight month.
- Export price gain improves. 


U.S. Import & Export Prices Strengthen in April

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in its May survey of manufacturing activity that the Current Activity Diffusion Index fell to 4.5 this month from 15.5 in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated a decline to 5.0. The Philly Fed survey responses were collected from May 6 to May 13. More than 29% of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 38% last month), while 25% reported decreases (up from 22%); 46% reported no change (up from 40%).

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question on the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index along the lines of the ISM PMI. That calculated index fell to 46.4 in May from 49.8 in April. This indicates that even though the headline index was above zero, the components pointed to a weaker Philly Fed district manufacturing sector.

The decline in May was led by significant weakness in shipments and orders. The shipments subindex plummeted to -1.2 in May from 19.1 in April while the shipments subindex fell markedly to -7.9 from 12.2. The employment subindex rose slightly in May but remained in negative territory at -7.9. This is the seventh consecutive month that the employment index has been negative, pointing to an ongoing decline in employment. Two-thirds of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting decreases (20%) exceeded the share reporting increases (12%).

On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. After rising 19 points last month, the prices paid index declined 4 points to 18.7 in May. Almost 19% of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases. The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 6.6. Almost 13% of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods while 6% reported decreases. 

Expectations for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated slightly in May but remained elevated. The May reading was 32.4 versus 34.3 in April and 38.6 in March.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Even with the May decline, the index remains in positive territory, pointing to expansion
- However, both shipments and orders subindexes fell markedly and more worryingly into contraction territory
- The employment subindex rose slightly but remained negative
- Expectations decline slightly but remain elevated


Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Falls in May

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 222,000 in the week ended May 11, down from 232,000 the week before; that earlier amount was revised slightly from 231,000 reported a week ago. The current week was close to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of 219,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 217,750, up from 215,250 the week before.  

Insured unemployment, that is, the total number of continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance, was 1.794 million in the week ended May 4, up from 1.781 million the week before; the earlier period’s amount was revised from 1.785 million reported before. In the May 4 week, the four-week moving average was 1,779,250, down marginally from 1.780 million in the four weeks ended April 27.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, insured unemployment as a percent of covered employment, was still 1.2% in the May 4 week. This rate has been at this level continuously since March 4, 2023, that is, almost 14 months.

Insured unemployment rates vary widely by individual states and territories. In the week ended April 27, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.38%), California (2.27%), Rhode Island (1.78%), Massachusetts (1.76%) and New York (1.74%).  The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Kansas (0.34%), Florida (0.37%), Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky (each 0.41%), and Nebraska (0.43%).  Rates in other prominent states include Illinois (1.66%), Pennsylvania (1.43%), Texas (1.06%), Michigan (1.04%) and Ohio (0.73%).  These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Initial claims come back toward recent tight range
- Continued weeks claimed rise somewhat in May 4 week
- But insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2% into a 14th month 


Economy in Brief: February 2005

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