Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026b.jpg" width="353">
The 3Q &#39;05 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI fell to 66 from 68 the prior quarter. The latest is the lowest level since 2Q &#39;03.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index continued lower to 81 and is down from the peak of 93, yet the index remained up sharply from the low of 30 during 2001.
The 3Q export orders index fell to 68 and earlier figures were revised lower. During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the export orders index and the y/y change in real US exports.
The profit margins index slipped slightly to 60 from 61 in 2Q but was well off last year&#39;s highs of 73.Capital spending intentions for the coming year moved lower q/q but the trend continued the sideways movement in place since late 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the capital spending index a y/y growth in business investment in equipment &amp; software.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click <a href="http://www.mapi.net/html/prelease.cfm?release_id=2024">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveys/@SE/@SE.HTM">Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Business Index</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The 3Q '05 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 66 from 68 the prior quarter. The latest is the lowest level since 2Q '03. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between [...]

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026a.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications reversed course last week and fell 7.9% after rising 6.1% the prior period according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline pulled the average level in October 5.9% below September.
Purchase applications reversed more than all of the prior week&#39;s rise and fell 7.4%, placing the October average 2.8% below September&#39;s which rose 1.0% from August. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance cratered 8.5% w/w to the lowest level since April and the October average is down 9.8% from September.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell slightly to 6.30% from 6.35% the prior week. The low for 30 year financing was 5.71% in late June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.90%. The interest rate on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Cash-Out Refinancing: Check It Out Carefully from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2005/c/pages/cash-out.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/21/05</th>
<th scope="col">10/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>679.1</td>
<td>737.5</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>466.4</td>
<td>503.9</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,916.8</td>
<td>2,095.7</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The total number of mortgage applications reversed course last week and fell 7.9% after rising 6.1% the prior period according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline pulled the average level in October 5.9% below September. [...]

Mortgage Applications Backed Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026a.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications reversed course last week and fell 7.9% after rising 6.1% the prior period according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline pulled the average level in October 5.9% below September.
Purchase applications reversed more than all of the prior week&#39;s rise and fell 7.4%, placing the October average 2.8% below September&#39;s which rose 1.0% from August. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance cratered 8.5% w/w to the lowest level since April and the October average is down 9.8% from September.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell slightly to 6.30% from 6.35% the prior week. The low for 30 year financing was 5.71% in late June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.90%. The interest rate on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Cash-Out Refinancing: Check It Out Carefully from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2005/c/pages/cash-out.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/21/05</th>
<th scope="col">10/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>679.1</td>
<td>737.5</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>466.4</td>
<td>503.9</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,916.8</td>
<td>2,095.7</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Further   
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 26, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026b.jpg" width="353">
The 3Q &#39;05 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI fell to 66 from 68 the prior quarter. The latest is the lowest level since 2Q &#39;03.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index continued lower to 81 and is down from the peak of 93, yet the index remained up sharply from the low of 30 during 2001.
The 3Q export orders index fell to 68 and earlier figures were revised lower. During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the export orders index and the y/y change in real US exports.
The profit margins index slipped slightly to 60 from 61 in 2Q but was well off last year&#39;s highs of 73.Capital spending intentions for the coming year moved lower q/q but the trend continued the sideways movement in place since late 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the capital spending index a y/y growth in business investment in equipment &amp; software.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click <a href="http://www.mapi.net/html/prelease.cfm?release_id=2024">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveys/@SE/@SE.HTM">Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;05</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Business Index</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Diversity in Japanese Trade 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> October 26, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026d.jpg" width="353">
The Japanese trade balance continues to diminish, a direct reflection of its need to import nearly all of the petroleum it uses. In September, the surplus was &yen;556.5 billion (seasonally adjusted), down from &yen;610.6 in August, &yen;828.3 billion in September 2004 and nearly &yen;1 trillion on average for all of 2004. This is not the fault of Japan&#39;s exports performance. Foreign shipment are expanding nicely; in September they did edge down &yen;15 million from &yen;5.544 trillion (seasonally adjusted) in August, but that figure was a record, and up more than 9% from a year earlier.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026c.jpg" width="353">
But imports grew faster still. They were &yen;4.973 billion in September, up 17.4% from the year-ago month, following year-on-year growth of 21.2% in August. These are not the fastest growth rates for imports ever in Japan, far from it. But they show the sensitivity of Japan&#39;s import picture to petroleum. The last time there were sustained increases of this magnitude was the winter of 2000-2001 when petroleum and natural gas prices were accelerating rapidly. Excluding the mineral fuel category, other Japanese imports were up 8.3% in September. Imports from China are an important part of import growth as well; they were up 11.9% on the last 12 months. Chinese goods now hold a 29.5% share of imports excluding mineral fuels compared with 26.5% on average last year and 22.7% as recently as 2002.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051026e.jpg" width="353">
At the same time, China is also a big market for exports of Japanese products. While it is not nearly as large a customer as the US, it seems to be working hard to catch up. As seen in the table below, its share of Japanese exports has increased by 4 percentage points since 2002, while the US share is down about 6-1/2 points. Other nations picking up market share for Japanese goods include India and Eastern Europe. So Japan&#39;s trading is clearly widespread and becoming more so all the time. Such diverse export gains can help it pay for the expensive oil it must buy.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J9/@J9.HTM">Japan:&nbsp;</a> Bil.&yen;&nbsp; NSA except as noted</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2005</th>
<th scope="col">July 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2004</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance (SA)</td>
<td>556.5</td>
<td>610.6</td>
<td>604.3</td>
<td>828.3</td>
<td>996.5</td>
<td>843.9</td>
<td>823.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>5925.3</td>
<td>5220.6</td>
<td>5536.9</td>
<td>5445.8</td>
<td>5097.5</td>
<td>4545.7</td>
<td>4342.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To US % of Total </td>
<td>22.0</td>
<td>21.3</td>
<td>22.6</td>
<td>22.7</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>24.6</td>
<td>28.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To China % of Total</td>
<td>13.6</td>
<td>14.5</td>
<td>13.8</td>
<td>12.9</td>
<td>13.1</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>9.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Sum</td>
<td>35.6</td>
<td>35.8</td>
<td>36.4</td>
<td>35.6</td>
<td>35.5</td>
<td>36.8</td>
<td>38.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>4968.3</td>
<td>5106.8</td>
<td>4668.1</td>
<td>4232.6</td>
<td>4101.4</td>
<td>3696.8</td>
<td>3519.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ex Mineral Fuels</td>
<td>3575.0</td>
<td>3722.1</td>
<td>3469.6</td>
<td>3300.1</td>
<td>3212.2</td>
<td>2917.7</td>
<td>2837.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; China % of Total</td>
<td>21.3</td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>20.3</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>19.7</td>
<td>18.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">China % of Non- Min Fuel</td>
<td>29.5</td>
<td>28.1</td>
<td>27.3</td>
<td>28.6</td>
<td>26.5</td>
<td>24.9</td>
<td>22.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025e.jpg" width="353">
The healthy October rises in German and Dutch measures of business confidence following yesterday&#39;s report of continued rising business confidence in France are beginning to suggest a pickup in economic activity within the Euro Zone.
Although the pessimists still outweigh the optimists in Germany, the excess of pessimists declined in October to 3.5% from 8.9% in September according to the IFO measure of confidence. In the Netherlands, the optimists who had exceeded the pessimists in September by 1.3% increased their excess over the pessimists to 4.3% in October. The percent balances of the optimists over the pessimists for both German and Dutch business are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025f.jpg" width="353">
In appraising current economic conditions in Germany, businessmen have generally been more pessimistic than optimistic. In the entire history of the IFO confidence data, from January, 1991 to date, the only time when the balance of opinion on current conditions was positive was the period from January 1991 to March 1992 and the month of May 2000.In their expectations of conditions six month ahead, German businessmen have generally been more optimistic, but even here, the times when the optimists outweighed the pessimists have been few and the positive balances small. The second chart shows the history of the IFO&#39;s percent balances of opinion of German businessmen for current conditions and expectations of conditions six months ahead. Because of this apparent bias in the IFO data, it is more useful to look at the changes in the data rather than the absolute values.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025g.jpg" width="353">
In the third chart we show the year-to-year changes in the appraisals of current conditions and expectations of conditions six month ahead. Here we see a marked increase in confidence in October both in current conditions and expectations for conditions six month ahead.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Business Confidence Indicators (% Balance)</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 05&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M&nbsp; Dif</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004 &nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">2003 &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2002&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Producers&#39; Confidence</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany IFO&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Business Climate</td>
<td>-3.5</td>
<td>-8.9</td>
<td>-10.7</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
<td>-17.6</td>
<td>-22.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Business Situation</td>
<td>-7.4</td>
<td>-12.1</td>
<td>-16.1</td>
<td>4.7</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>-27.9</td>
<td>-34.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Business Expectations</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>-9.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The healthy October rises in German and Dutch measures of business confidence following yesterday's report of continued rising business confidence in France are beginning to suggest a pickup in economic activity within the Euro Zone. [...]

Business Confidence Strengthens in the Euro Zone: German and Dutch Business Join the More Optimistic Groups

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025a.jpg" width="353">
The US average retail gasoline price continued lower last week and fell to $2.60 per gallon from $2.73 during the prior week.
Crude oil prices continued lower as well. WTI crude fell yesterday to $61.13 per barrel versus an average of $62.44 during last week and versus the late August high of $69.82.
Deflation: Making Sure &quot;It&quot; Doesn&#39;t Happen Here, a 2002 speech made by Ben S. Bernanke can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/24/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.60</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>28.1%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$61.13</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
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The US average retail gasoline price continued lower last week and fell to $2.60 per gallon from $2.73 during the prior week. Crude oil prices continued lower as well. WTI crude fell yesterday to $61.13 per barrel versus an average of [...]

Gasoline Prices Fell Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025d.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales slipped 0.2% last week and reversed half of the prior week&#39;s increase, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. For the month, the level of sales is even with the September average. 
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 0.9% (-2.3% y/y) during the latest week but for the month so far is down 0.1% from the September average.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">10/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>449.7</td>
<td>450.6</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Chain store sales slipped 0.2% last week and reversed half of the prior week's increase, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. For the month, the level of sales is even with the September [...]

Chain Store Sales Slipped

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The National Association of Realtors reported that September total existing home sales remained unchanged from the prior month at 7.28M. The August level was revised down slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a slightly steeper decline to 7.20M sales. 
Sales of single-family homes rose 0.6% to 6.38 million while condo &amp; co-op sales fell 4.3% to 900,000 (+9.8% y/y). 
The data cover sales closed in the latest and previous months, and contrast to the new home sales data which count sales at the signing of a contract. 
By region, changes in single family home sales were mixed in September. In the Northeast sales rose by 1.2% (4.8% y/y) for the second consecutive month and rose 4.9% (12.6% y/y) in the South.In the West single family sales slipped 3.3% (+1.4% y/y) and have fallen in two of the last three months. In the Midwest sales fell 3.4% m/m but remained up 3.6% y/y. 
The median price of an existing single-family home fell 3.4% m/m to $212,200 (14.3% y/y). It was the second decline during the last three months.Prices are not seasonally adjusted and frequently soften following the peak Spring-Summer selling season. 
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/EHSPage?OpenDocument">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Home Sales</td>
<td>7,280</td>
<td>7,280</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6,723</td>
<td>6,170</td>
<td>5,653</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family Home Sales</td>
<td>6,380</td>
<td>6,340</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>5,913</td>
<td>5,441</td>
<td>4,995</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Single Family Median Home Price ($,000) </td>
<td>$212.2 </td>
<td>$219.7 </td>
<td>14.3% </td>
<td>$182.8 </td>
<td>$169.1 </td>
<td>$157.6 </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The National Association of Realtors reported that September total existing home sales remained unchanged from the prior month at 7.28M. The August level was revised down slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a slightly [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unchanged

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/051025c.jpg" width="353">
In October, the Conference Board&#39;s index of Consumer Confidence fell to 85.0 and added 2.9% to the 17.9% m/m decline during the prior month.
Consensus expectations had been for little change at 88.0. Last week, the University of Michigan reported that its October measure of consumer sentiment fell 2.0% m/m (-17.8% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
The index of consumers&#39; expectations fell 3.9% m/m (-24.6% y/y) and the assessment of the present situation slipped 2.0% (+15.1% y/y). Jobs were viewed as hard to get by an increased 25.3% of survey participants.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>85.0</td>
<td>87.5</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
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In October, the Conference Board's index of Consumer Confidence fell to 85.0 and added 2.9% to the 17.9% m/m decline during the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for little change at 88.0. Last week, the University of [...]

Consumer Confidence Down Again

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Resilient US economy is pushing up longer-term inflation expectations and interest rates

Positive US economic data surprises leading to upward adjustment of interest rate expectations

Recent aggressive policy easing in China has given a massive boost to equity prices

FOMC expects much more easing now than in June

US is clear world leader in business capital spending on artificial intelligence

Blue Chip forecasters expect US to lead aggressive policy rate cuts over coming year—apart from Japan

Ratio of job openings to the number unemployed in the US now below pre-pandemic level

U.S. layoffs not showing as much cooling in labor markets as unemployment rate

While goods prices have moderated, service price inflation remains elevated and sticky

Since Jan 2023, BCEI US outlook has improved, worsened for Japan and the euro area

Persistent negative US economic surprises leading to big rate-cut expectations

Germany is Euro area weakling

Flash PMIs show good start to Q3 in US; loss of momentum in the euro area

Chinese economy on downtrend could threaten global economy

Working age population labor force participation near all-time high as retirements increase

Blue Chip forecasters look for widespread policy rate cuts just ahead

Flash June PMIs point to a widespread slowdown apart from the US

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The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% during November, up from four consecutive months of 0.2% gain. Expectations had been for a 0.2% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase picked up to 2.7% from 2.6% in October and was the quickest rise in four months. The three-month increase rose to 3.0% (AR) from 2.5% but remained below the 4.6% high in April of this year. Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month. Core consumer prices increased 3.7% (AR) during the last three months, up from 1.6% in July, and 3.3% y/y. Food prices rose 0.4% last month (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain while energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) after holding steady in October.

The CPI less food, energy and shelter, another measure of core pricing power, rose 0.3% after a 0.2% gain. The 2.2% y/y rise was increased from a July low of 1.7% but remained below the 7.6% y/y peak in February 2022. It compared to a low of 0.3% y/y in May 2020.

Services costs less energy rose a steady 0.3% in November (4.6% y/y). Shelter costs rose 0.3% following a 0.4% rise in October. Its 4.7% y/y rise compares to an 8.2% peak in March 2023. Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.2% (4.9% y/y), following a 0.4% rise and was the weakest increase since April 2021. Rents of primary residences rose a similarly depressed 0.2% (4.4% y/y) after two consecutive months of 0.3% rise, but the cost of lodging away from home surged 3.2% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% October gain. Transportation service prices held steady last month (+7.1% y/y) after rising 0.4% in October, as public transportation prices also were unchanged (2.9% y/y) after a 2.4% October surge. Medical care service costs rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) the same as in October. Education & communication prices eased 0.2% (+1.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Recreation services prices rose 0.7% (3.5% y/y), the same as in October.

During November, the CPI for goods less food & energy increased 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) after holding steady in October. Home furnishings prices rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y), as appliance costs also rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y).  Apparel costs rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) after a 1.5% decline. Education & communication product costs fell 1.1% (-5.4% y/y) the same as in October while medical care product prices declined 0.1% (NSA, +0.4% y/y) in November. Prices for recreation products weakened 0.5% (-1.5% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Transportation product prices rose 0.9% (-1.4% y/y) after improving 0.8%. New vehicle prices rose 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) after holding steady while used car & truck prices strengthened 2.0% (-3.4% y/y) after a 2.7% rise.

Food prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) in November following a 0.2% October increase. Egg prices rebounded 8.2% (37.5% y/y) after a 6.4% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rebounded 1.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% while cereal & bakery product prices weakened 1.1% (-0.5% y/y) after a 1.0% rise. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.2% (1.1	% y/y) after increasing 0.4%, while dairy prices eased 0.1% (+1.2% y/y) after rising 1.0% in October. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 1.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% October rise.

Energy prices rose 0.2% (-3.2% y/y) in November after holding steady in October. Gasoline prices rose 0.6	% (-8.1% y/y) after three straight monthly declines. Amongst other energy products, fuel oil & propane prices rose 0.4% (-10.7% y/y) after declining 2.2%. Electricity prices eased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) after a 1.2% gain, while natural gas prices jumped 1.0% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.3% October gain.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Food prices pick up.
- Services price gains remain steady.
- Core goods prices pick up.

U.S. CPI Picks Up Modestly in November; Core Prices Rise Steadily

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications in the week ended December 6 increased 5.4% (15.9% y/y) after rising 2.8% (18.1% y/y) in the week ended November 29. Applications for loans to purchase a house dropped 4.1% (+3.5% y/y) in the December 6 week, after a rise of 5.6% (11.8% y/y) in the November 29 week, while applications to refinance a loan surged 27.2% (42.2% y/y) in the latest week after declining 0.6% (+33.5% y/y) the week before. These data are from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the amounts quoted here are seasonally adjusted.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan was 6.86% in the week ended December 6, down slightly from 6.89% in the November 29 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 50bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 6.46% in the November 29 week, still higher than 5.84% in mid-September. The rate on a 30-year jumbo loan was 6.94% in the week ended December 6, down slightly from 6.96% in the November 29 week, but slightly higher than 6.90% in mid-October.

The share of applications to refinance an existing mortgage was 46.8% in the December 6 week, sharply higher than the 38.7% share in the November 29 week. The largest share in recent months was 55.7% the week of September 20. The share of applications for ARMs was 5.3% in the latest week, down from 6.0% in the November 29 week. The last time the share was 5.3% was in the week ended February 25, 2022.

The average loan size in the December 6 week was $368,200, down 2.5% from $377,600 in the November 29 week, and up 3.6% from a year ago. The average size of an application for a loan to purchase a house was $416,200 in December 6 week, down from $431,900 in the week before, while the average size of an application to refinance an existing loan increased to $313,600 in the latest week from $291,500 in the November 29 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Applications to purchase a house drop, while applications to refinance surge.
- Slight decrease in rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans.
- Average loan size decreases modestly.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise in the December 6 Week

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U.S. nonfarm business productivity (output per hour) increased an unrevised 2.2% (SAAR) during Q3’24 after a 2.1% rise in Q2 and a 0.7% Q1 gain. The figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Survey. The 2.0% y/y increase remained below its 2.7% gain in 2023 (Q4/Q4) but was improved from a 1.4% decline in 2022. It also was greatly improved versus the 1.2% average between 2009 and 2019. Nonfarm business output increased 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 3.0% gain, revised from 3.5%, while hours-worked rose 1.2% (0.7% y/y) after increasing 0.9%.

Compensation growth slowed to 3.1% (4.3% y/y), revised from 4.2%, after a slightly revised 4.8% gain. As a result, unit labor costs grew 0.8% (2.2% y/y) last quarter, revised from 1.9% after a 1.1% decline, revised from a 2.4% increase. The Action Economics survey expected unit labor costs to rise 1.6% last quarter.

In the manufacturing sector, productivity in Q3 improved 0.9% (0.6% (y/y), revised from 1.0%, after rising a minimally changed 0.2% in Q2 and falling 0.7% in Q1. Compensation grew 2.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 6.4%, following a 5.6% decline in Q2, revised from a 6.2% rise. Unit labor costs rose 1.7% (1.8% y/y), revised from 5.3%, after a 5.8% fall, revised from a 5.8% increase.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Annual increase remains below last year’s gain.
- Compensation growth dips.
- Increase in unit labor costs slows.

U.S. Productivity Growth Is Steady & Unrevised in Q3’24

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 101.7 in November, the seventh m/m rise in eight months and the highest level since June 2021, following a 2.2-point increase to 93.7 in October, according to the November 2024 Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the first time in 35 months that the index was above the 50-year average of 98. The index was also up from its recent low of 88.5 in March 2024, 90.6 in November 2023, and a low of 89.0 in April 2023; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 102.5 in June 2021. Nine of the 10 index components rose, none fell, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index fell to 98 in November, the lowest level since August, from a record-high 110 in October; however, it was well above its recent low of 65 in November 2023 and a low of 55 in June 2022.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months turned positive in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve jumped to 36% in November, the sixth m/m rise in seven months and the highest level since June 2020, after a seven-point increase to -5% in October; it was significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales gained to a net 14% in November following a five-point rise to -4% in October, posting the highest level since February 2020. The latest reading was up from a low of -21% in May 2023 and a low of -29% in July 2022. A net -13% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -20% reported in October and registering the highest reading since June. The latest reading, however, was down from the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays rose to 28% in November from 22% in October, up from a low of 19% in September and a low of 19% in April 2023. The November number posted the highest reading since January 2022; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business advanced to 14% in November following a two-point increase to 6% in October; the latest figure, up from a low of 2% in March 2023, registered the best reading since a high of 15% in June 2021. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions edged up to -5% in November after a two-point increase to -6% in October; the latest number was slightly above its recent high of -6% in February 2024 but below a high of -4% in May 2022 and a high of -3% in November 2021.

On the labor front, labor markets remained relatively tight. Forty-eight percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in November, up from 46% in October. These numbers were below a high of 57% in September 2023, a high of 61% in May 2022, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 18% planned to increase employment in November, up from 15% in October and 15% in September, but it was down from a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 36% reported positions not able to be filled in November, up from 35% in October and registering the highest since August. These figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends continued to improve in November while having remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure increased to -26% in November, still a poor reading, following a one-point uptick to -33% in October; these numbers were below a high of -18% in March 2023.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent raising their average selling prices rose to 24% in November after a one-point decline to 21% in October; these numbers, however, were slightly down from 25% in November 2023 and well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices rose to 28% in November following a one-point increase to 26% in October; these figures were below 34% in November 2023 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation was still relatively high in the November survey. A net 32% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, slightly up from 31% reported in the October survey. However, it was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 28% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 23% reported in October and registering the highest reading since December 2023; nevertheless, having remained below a high of 30% in November 2023 and a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be an issue facing small businesses, as reported by 20% of NFIB members in November as the single most important problem. Registering the lowest reading since January 2024, the November figure was down from 23% in October and a peak of 37% in July 2022. The quality of labor was the second important concern with 19% in November, slightly down from 20% in October. Other concerns (in November vs. October) included taxes (14% vs. 16%), the cost of labor (11% vs 8%), and government requirements (8% vs. 8%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index up 8.0 pts. to 101.7.
- Uncertainty Index down 12 pts. to a three-month-low 98.
- Expectations for economy up 41 pts. to 36%, the highest since June ’20.
- Expected real sales up 18 pts. to 14%, the highest since February ’20.
- Inflation (20%) remains top business problem, followed by Quality of Labor (19%); both slightly down from October.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Jumps in November; Highest Level Since June ’21

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades fell to $3.13 per gallon (-3.9% y/y) in the week ended December 2nd from $3.16 per gallon in the prior week. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ended April 22, and its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ended June 11, 2022. The latest measure of on-highway diesel fuel prices was $3.46 per gallon (-13.3% y/y) versus $3.54 per gallon in the prior week. Diesel prices have ranged between $2.37 per gallon in the week ended November 2, 2020 and $5.81 in the week of June 20, 2022.

Crude oil prices eased	 to an average $68.42 per barrel (-3.4% y/y) in the week ended December 6 and reversed most of the prior week’s increase to $69.61 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate prices have fallen from a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. Yesterday, the price was $69.39 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil stood at $72.31 per barrel last week (-4.9% y/y) versus $72.26 in the week prior. Yesterday’s price was $74.32 per barrel.

Natural gas prices fell to $2.90 per mmbtu last week (-10.7% y/y) from $3.19 in the prior week. Prices were below a $2.73 high in the second week of June. The price was $2.10 per mmbtu yesterday.

Gasoline demand rose 2.8% y/y in the four weeks ended November 29, after holding steady y/y in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products increased 4.0% y/y in the four weeks ended November 29 after a 1.0% y/y increase in the prior four weeks. Crude oil input to refineries rose 4.5% y/y in the four-week period ended November 29 after a 5.2% y/y increase in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 4.0% y/y in the week ended November 29 after decreasing 2.7% y/y in the week prior. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 12.0% in the week of November 29 after declining 11.0% y/y in the prior week. In contrast, crude oil inventories grew 2.3% y/y in the latest week following a 2.2% y/y increase during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories rose to 24.5 days in the week ended November 29 from 24.2 days in the prior week. Crude oil inventories slipped to 25.7 days’ supply in the week of November 29 from 26.2 days in the prior week. These compare to a low of 24.8 days in the week ended September 20, 2024 and a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices weaken; crude oil prices decline and natural gas prices fall sharply.
- Demand for gasoline increases moderately.
- Inventories of gasoline fall, but crude oil inventories rise.

Economy in Brief: October 2005

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MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Further

Mortgage Applications Backed Down

Mortgage Applications Backed Down

Business Confidence Strengthens in the Euro Zone: German and Dutch Business Join the More Optimistic Groups

Gasoline Prices Fell Further

Chain Store Sales Slipped

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unchanged

Consumer Confidence Down Again