For December, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank continued lower into recession territory. The latest reading of -3.26 was near it's historic low. Since 1970 there has been a 75% correlation [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jan 26 2009Chicago Fed Index Well Into Recession Territory
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 26 2009
U.S. Leading Indicators Rose Slightly
The Conference Board reported that the December composite index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% after an unrevised 0.4% November decline. The peak for the index was in July of last year and the six-month percent change of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 26 2009
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose Last Month
Could the decline in home sales be stabilizing, perhaps due to lower prices? According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% last month to 4.740M. The 9.4% November decline was slightly deeper than [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 26 2009
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose Last Month
Could the decline in home sales be stabilizing, perhaps due to lower prices? According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% last month to 4.740M. The 9.4% November decline was slightly deeper than [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 23 2009
Consensus Forecast for 4Q GDP: Activity Down 5%
The 4Q 08 figures for Gross National Product will be available next Friday at 8:30 A.M. As always, the data will be a key gauge for measuring the current shape of the economy. And the news is not likely to be pleasant reading. It's [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 23 2009
Consensus Forecast for 4Q GDP:Activity Down 5%
The 4Q 08 figures for Gross National Product will be available next Friday at 8:30 A.M. As always, the data will be a key gauge for measuring the current shape of the economy. And the news is not likely to be pleasant reading. It's [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2009
U.S. Weekly Claims For Jobless Insurance Highest Since 1982
At 589,000 last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose another 62,000 to their highest level since late during the sharp recession of 1981-82. During that recession, real GDP fell by 2.9% peak-to-trough. The latest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2009
U.S. Gasoline Prices Up Again
Regular gasoline prices moved higher last week for the third consecutive period. They rose six cents to an average $1.85 per gallon after the prior week's ten cent gain, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The latest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2009
U.S. Home Builders' Survey At Record Low
The January Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders again reached a record low. At a level of 8 it was more than half below the year-ago figure. The index is compiled from survey questions asking [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2009
U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low
The pace of the downturn in the U.S. housing market accelerated at the end of last year. Housing starts fell to a record low in December of 550,000 units (SAAR) which was the lowest in the series' history that extends back to 1959. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 22 2009
U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low
The pace of the downturn in the U.S. housing market accelerated at the end of last year. Housing starts fell to a record low in December of 550,000 units (SAAR) which was the lowest in the series' history that extends back to 1959. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 21 2009
U.S. Chain Store Sales Recover Modestly
Chain store sales last week rose 1.1%, but failed to recover even half of the prior week's 2.3% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. As a result, for January so far sales have risen [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- of1081Go to 752 page