Global| Jan 26 2009U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose Last Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Could the decline in home sales be stabilizing, perhaps due to lower prices? According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% last month to 4.740M. The 9.4% November decline was slightly deeper than [...]
Could the decline in home sales be stabilizing, perhaps due to lower prices? According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% last month to 4.740M. The 9.4% November decline was slightly deeper than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 4.40M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Median home prices fell yet again during December. The 2.7% (NSA) decline followed a 3.3% November drop that was slightly deeper than initially reported. It was the sixth consecutive monthly drop and it lowered prices by 15.3% from December of 2007. Prices have fallen 23.4% since their peak in June 2007.
The number of unsold homes (condos & single-family) on the market dropped a sharp 11.7% (-7.5% y/y). At the current sales rate there was a 9.3 months' supply on the market which was the lowest since early during 2007. For single-family homes the inventory fell m/m to an 8.7 months supply at the current sales rate which also was the lowest since 2007.
Last month, sales of existing single-family homes recovered nearly all of the November decline with a 7.0% increase. Nevertheless, sales of existing homes remained down by nearly one-third from their peak in mid-2005.
By region, home sales in the West posted the strongest gain in December with a 13.6% rise. This gain recouped all of the declines during the prior two months and returned sales to the upward trend line that has been in place since the low in October of 2007. Sales in the South also gained 7.4% versus November but that level was the series' low for this cycle. Sales in the Midwest also rose by 4.0%. That too was off the series' low. Sales in the Northeast fell 1.4% after a huge 12.0% November drop. Single family home sales here were at their lowest since 1992.
| Existing Home Sales (Thous) | December | y/y % | November | December '07 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 4,740 | -3.5 | 4,450 | 4,910 | 4,897 | 5,672 | 6,508 |
| Northeast | 720 | -14.3 | 730 | 840 | 842 | 1,008 | 1,090 |
| Midwest | 1,040 | -10.3 | 1,000 | 1,160 | 1,129 | 1,331 | 1,491 |
| South | 1,740 | -11.2 | 1,620 | 1,960 | 1,863 | 2,240 | 2,576 |
| West | 1,250 | 31.6 | 1,100 | 950 | 1,066 | 1,093 | 1,353 |
| Single-Family | 4,260 | -1.4 | 3,980 | 4,320 | 4,345 | 4,958 | 5,703 |
| Median Price, Total, $ | 175,400 | -15.3 | 180,300 | 207,000 | 197,217 | 216,617 | 222,000 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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