Global| Jan 21 2009U.S. Chain Store Sales Recover Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales last week rose 1.1%, but failed to recover even half of the prior week's 2.3% decline, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. As a result, for January so far sales have risen [...]
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales.
The outlook for sales is for modest recovery as suggested by the weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs. It fell 1.5% after a modest 0.6% rise in the opening week of January. Nevertheless, there were strong week-to-week increases during December. Therefore, the average level so far in January is up 1.5% from December, which rose 2.1% versus November. Since the lows of one month ago the index has recovered 3.8%. The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.After Rocky 2008, U.S. Consumers Seek Stable Ground in 2009 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 01/17/09 | 01/10/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 479.8 | 474.5 | -1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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