The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in March, but the index level still was negative as it has been for most of the last three years. . A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| May 05 2003Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 02 2003
Unemployment Up, Nonfarm Payrolls Down
The unemployment rate rose to 6.0% in April, back to the level of last December. Consensus expectations had been for a rise to 5.9%. Employment rose 339,000 (+1.1% y/y) following two months of slight decline. The labor force surged [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| May 01 2003
1Q Productivity Up
Nonfarm labor productivity last quarter grew slightly less than expected, up 1.6% versus a Consensus estimate for 2.0% growth. Productivity growth, though slow, accelerated versus 4Q despite slower growth in output. Output rose 1.4% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 30 2003
Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Below 50 for Second Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index of Business activity fell more than expected to 47.6, below 50 for the second month. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 48.5. The decline was similar to the Philadelphia Fed survey which [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 29 2003
Employment Cost Index Surged
The employment cost index rose last quarter by twice Consensus expectations for a 0.7% gain. The gain was double the 4Q increase. Faster growth in wages & salaries accounted for most of the acceleration in the ECI. The 1.0% quarterly [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 28 2003
Personal Income and Spending Up
Personal income rose an expected 0.4% last month. The gain was driven by a healthy 0.5% (3.0% y/y) rise in wages and salaries which was the strongest monthly rise in wages since last August. Wages in private industry rose 0.5% (2.7% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 25 2003
1Q GDP Grew Modestly
Real GDP last quarter grew 1.6% (AR), slightly less than Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth. Weakness in domestic demand was behind the only modest GDP growth. Final sales to domestic purchasers grew 1.2% and that was the weakest [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 24 2003
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Again
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were again higher than Consensus expectations. Initial claims rose 1.8% w/w to 455,000. That followed an 8.5% rise the week earlier, revised up from the initial estimate. The recent [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 23 2003
Mortgage Applications Down for Fifth Week
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association dropped 6.9% last week. It was the fifth consecutive weekly decline. During that period applications have fallen 36.9%. Last week's decline was due to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 22 2003
Chain Store Sales Surged for Second Week
Chain store sales in the week leading up to Easter surged 1.9% according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The rise followed a 1.3% gain the prior week. Sales so far in April are 0.1% above the March average. March sales finished 0.3% above [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 21 2003
Leading Indicators Down for Second Month
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell 0.2% last month, as expected. The prior month's previously reported decline was revised slightly deeper. Gains amongst the leaders' component [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Apr 17 2003
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Near the High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were much higher than Consensus expectations for 415,000. Claims rose 7.3% w/w to 442,000 and reversed virtually all of the prior period's decline. Claims in the prior week were [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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