Global| Apr 17 2003Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Near the High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were much higher than Consensus expectations for 415,000. Claims rose 7.3% w/w to 442,000 and reversed virtually all of the prior period's decline. Claims in the prior week were [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were much higher than Consensus expectations for 415,000. Claims rose 7.3% w/w to 442,000 and reversed virtually all of the prior period's decline. Claims in the prior week were revised up. The figures reflect benchmark revisions.
The recent level of initial jobless claims was just below the late-March high of 443,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 424,750, -4.8% y/y.
The latest figure covers the survey period for April nonfarm payrolls and claims were about even with the March figure. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation (inverse) between the level of initial claims and the month to month change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 2.2% w/w to the highest level since mid-November. The prior week's figure was revised up. During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation (inverse) between the level of continued claims and the month to month change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment was 2.8% for the third consecutive week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 4/12/03 | 4/05/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 442.0 | 412.0 | -2.0% | 404.3 | 406.0 | 299.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,574 | -3.5% | 3,575 | 3,022 | 2,114 |
by Tom Moeller April 17, 2003
The Philadelphia Fed’s index of general business conditions weakened slightly more than expected in April to -8.8 from -8.0 in March. Consensus expectations were for a decline to -6.0.
The decline contrasts with sharp deterioration in the Empire State Factory survey for April reported earlier this week.
During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and quarterly growth in real GDP. The correlation with quarterly growth in factory sector industrial production has been 80%.
Amongst the sub indexes new orders, shipments, and employment fell significantly and each is quite negative. The length of the workweek and inventories improved month to month but both remained negative. One-quarter of the firms surveyed in April indicated some decline in new orders due to the war in Iraq.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components.
A separate survey of expected business conditions fell slightly month to month to a still strong reading of 45.8 versus 50.9 last year and 32.4 in 2001.
Prices paid eased slightly versus March but remained near the highest level of the last two years.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Fed can be found here.
| Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Activity Index | -8.8 | -8.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | -17.2 | 8.3 |
| Prices Paid Index | 22.8 | 25.1 | 5.9 | 12.2 | -0.9 | 27.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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