Global| Apr 30 2003Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Below 50 for Second Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index of Business activity fell more than expected to 47.6, below 50 for the second month. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 48.5. The decline was similar to the Philadelphia Fed survey which [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity fell more than expected to 47.6, below 50 for the second month. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 48.5.
The decline was similar to the Philadelphia Fed survey which showed moderate deterioration in general activity versus March. Both surveys indicated a decline in activity this month.
Over the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the Chicago PMI and the month to month change in factory sector industrial production.
The new orders index fell sharply and moved below 50 for the first month since October. Inventories, employment and the vendor deliveries index also fell. Production improved slightly to a still low 51.0.
The prices paid index fell for the first month since January.
Visit the Chicago Purchasing Managers website at www.napm-chicago.org.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | April | Mar | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 47.6 | 48.4 | 54.7 | 52.7 | 41.4 | 51.8 |
| Prices Paid | 55.9 | 62.8 | 54.3 | 56.9 | 50.4 | 65.6 |
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2003
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell just 0.5% last week but it was the sixth consecutive weekly decline. During that period applications have fallen 37.2%.
Last week's decline was due to slight declines in applications both to refinance and purchase. Refinancing applications fell 0.2% but are down 45.8% during the last six weeks. Despite that drop, applications to refinance are 50.3% higher than last year's average level.
Mortgage applications for home purchase fell 1.1% last week, the fourth decline in five weeks. A surge in purchase applications at the end of March and in early April raised the average level so far for April 3.6% above March which was up 9.3% from February.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The average size of a mortgage loan application fell for the third consecutive week to $176,500 (-5.6% y/y). The average size of an application for home purchase fell slightly to $192,800 (+3.8% y/y). The average size of an application to refinance also fell, by 1.1% to $169,000 (-10.4% y/y).
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell sharply with the contract rate down to 5.51%. The effective rate (incl. points) fell to 5.80%. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell to 5.16%.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 4/25/03 | 4/18/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,050.8 | 1,055.8 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 356.0 | 359.9 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 5,092.0 | 5,103.9 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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