Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up Again

Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were again higher than Consensus expectations. Initial claims rose 1.8% w/w to 455,000. That followed an 8.5% rise the week earlier, revised up from the initial estimate.

The recent level of initial jobless claims was the highest since late-March, 2002. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 439,250, -2.2% y/y. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation (inverse) between the level of initial claims and the month to month change in nonfarm payrolls. There's been a 77% correlation (inverse) with the year to year change in payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 1.2% w/w to the highest level since mid-November. The prior week's figure was revised down. During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation (inverse) between the level of continued claims and the month to month change in nonfarm payrolls. There's been an 82% correlation (inverse) with the year to year change in payrolls.

The insured rate of unemployment was unchanged at 2.8%.

Durable goods orders surged an unexpected 2.0% last month. The sharp decline in February orders was deepened slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% decline in March orders.

Much of the strength in orders last month was due to a 4.0% (5.1% y/y) gain in orders for computers and electronic products which snapped back from a 3.6% decline in February. This gain paced a 1.8% rise in nondefense capital goods orders.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts rose 3.2% (7.4% y/y). Orders for aircraft and parts plummeted 31.2% on the heels of a 39.4% February drop as orders for nondefense aircraft fell hard for the third straight month.

Orders for electrical equipment rose 2.5% (1.3% y/y) following stiff declines in four of the prior five months. Machinery orders also were strong, up 2.3% (4.2% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods bounced 1.0% (1.0% y/y) following a sharp 2.1% February drop that was revised down.

Durable inventories were unchanged (-1.6% y/y) for the second month.

The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising fell to the lowest level since 1963.

The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume nevertheless improved to 49% from an upwardly revised 41% in February.

During the last ten years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls. The correlation with the y/y change in employment has been 92%.

All of the figures mentioned above are seasonally adjusted.