The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in May for the second consecutive month. The 0.7% gain followed a 0.1% rise in April but the two increases represented the only real upward movement in the index so far this year. Not [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jul 14 2003OECD Leaders Up A Little
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 11 2003
Higher Energy Prices Raised The June PPI, Core Prices Fell
Finished producer prices rose 0.5% in June, a bit more than Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The rise was the first in three months. Finished energy prices jumped 3.4% for the first gain in three months. That accounted for [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 10 2003
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Again Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly by 5,000 last week, to 439,000, and added to a 26,000 increase the prior week that was revised up. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 420,000 The four-week moving [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 09 2003
Consumer Credit Use Up Again
Consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) rose $7.3B (5.0% AR) in May. Consensus expectations had been for a $5.5B rise. The surge in April was revised down due to a lowered gain in nonrevolving credit. During the first [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 08 2003
Looks Like The Recession Ended Late in 2001
The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reported in June that "... the U.S. economy continues to experience growth in income and output but employment continues to decline. Because of the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 07 2003
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Up in May
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in May to -0.39 from a downwardly revised reading of -1.04 in April. . A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 03 2003
Unemployment Rate Surged, Payrolls Down Again
The unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% in June, further than Consensus expectations for a rise to 6.2%. It was the highest rate of unemployment since April 1994. Employment did rise 251,000 (+1.0% y/y) but that gain was outpaced by a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 02 2003
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Up Slightly
Unit sales of light vehicles rose 1.9% m/m in June to an annual rate of 16.43 million units. Consensus expectations were for sales of 16.1 mil. units. The increase in June sales recovered virtually all of the decline in May. It [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 01 2003
Chain Store Sales Slump
Chain store sales gave back last week virtually all of the prior week's gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The 0.5% w/w decline followed a 0.6% gain the week prior and continued the erratic sales performance of the last two [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 30 2003
Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Improved
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index improved for the second consecutive month in June to 52.5. The reading was right on Consensus estimates for 52.5. The improvement lagged the dramatic increase in the Empire [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 27 2003
Personal Income & Spending Rose, Prices Fell
Personal income rose an expected 0.3% last month. The gain followed an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in April. The PCE price deflator fell 0.1% in May for the second consecutive monthly decline. Less food and energy, the price [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 26 2003
1Q GDP Revised Down, Profits Stronger
Real GDP growth in 1Q03 was revised lower to 1.4% (AR) from the preliminary estimate of 1.9% growth. The downward revision was greater than Consensus expectations for 1.9% growth. Revisions to most components were minor including a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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