Global| Jul 02 2003U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Up Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Unit sales of light vehicles rose 1.9% m/m in June to an annual rate of 16.43 million units. Consensus expectations were for sales of 16.1 mil. units. The increase in June sales recovered virtually all of the decline in May. It [...]
Unit sales of light vehicles rose 1.9% m/m in June to an annual rate of 16.43 million units. Consensus expectations were for sales of 16.1 mil. units.
The increase in June sales recovered virtually all of the decline in May. It continued the erratic sideways movement of sales in place for the last two and one half years.
Sales of cars rose 4.0% m/m for the first gain since March. Truck sales were about flat month to month.
Since the peak in early 1997, the CPI for new vehicles has fallen 4.7%.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units) | June | May | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 16.43 | 16.12 | 0.5% | 16.81 | 17.26 | 17.40 |
| Autos | 7.56 | 7.27 | -4.9% | 8.07 | 8.48 | 8.83 |
| Light Trucks | 8.87 | 8.86 | 5.5% | 8.74 | 8.78 | 8.56 |
by Tom Moeller July 2, 2003
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association rose 5.2% last week and recouped most of the prior week's decline. For all of June, mortgage applications rose 6.5%.
Applications to refinance rose 4.8% w/w and jumped 8.1% last month to a new monthly record.
Applications for home purchase surged 6.6% w/w and added 1.3% in all of June to the 11.6% gain in May.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage moved higher for the second week with the effective rate at 5.52% versus 6.13% averaged in December. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 4.97% versus 5.55% averaged in December.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 6/27/03 | 6/20/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,635.5 | 1,554.5 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 438.4 | 411.2 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 8,599.1 | 8,204.6 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller July 2, 2003
Manufacturing inventories fell 0.1% in May, down for the third consecutive month. The steep drop in the June ISM inventory index suggests further decumulation, although the rate of decline has slowed since 2001.
Inventories fell across the board in May with computers and electronic products down 1.0% (-9.1% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories fell a slight 0.1% (-6.1% y/y) but machinery inventories fell 0.3% (-4.3% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.3% m/m but are up 1.5% y/y.
Nondurable goods inventories were unchanged for the second month (+4.3% y/y).
Factory shipments rose 0.4% (-0.7% y/y). Shipments of petroleum and coal rose 9.3% m/m following the 19.4% plunge in April.
Factory orders rose 0.4%. Durable goods orders fell 0.4%, little revised from the advance report.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | May | April | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.7% | -1.9% | -8.0% | 4.5% |
| New Orders | 0.4% | -3.0% | -0.1% | -0.8% | -7.2% | 5.2% |
| Shipments | 0.4% | -2.3% | -0.7% | -1.1% | -5.3% | 4.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
