Global| Jul 07 2003Chicago Fed National Activity Index Up in May
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in May to -0.39 from a downwardly revised reading of -1.04 in April. . A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth [...]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in May to -0.39 from a downwardly revised reading of -1.04 in April. . A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of over 3% p.a.
The improvement in May followed three months of readings which together were the weakest since late 2001.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI improved to -0.69, still the second lowest level since late 2001 and consistent with negligible or negative real GDP growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production & income, the labor market, personal consumption & housing, mfg. & trade sales, and inventories & orders.
For a complete discussion of the latest Chicago Fed's National Activity Index click here.
A discussion of the CFNAI and its role as a business cycle indicator can be found here.
| Chicago Fed | May | April | May '02 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.39 | -1.04 | -0.10 | -0.33 | -1.19 | -0.13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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