Global| Jul 14 2003OECD Leaders Up A Little
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in May for the second consecutive month. The 0.7% gain followed a 0.1% rise in April but the two increases represented the only real upward movement in the index so far this year. Not [...]
The OECD Index of Leading Indicators (Big 7) rose in May for the second consecutive month. The 0.7% gain followed a 0.1% rise in April but the two increases represented the only real upward movement in the index so far this year.
Not only has the index just one material rise this year, gains amongst the member country leading indexes have been limited. The leading index for the US rose a smart 1.2% in May following a 0.7% increase in April, and those gains more than made up for sharp declines in February and March.
Also showing some strength were the leaders in Italy. They managed the fourth increase of the year in May and were up 1.2% YTD.
On the weak side, the leading index in Germany rose just 0.3% in May and year to date was up 0.1%. In France, the leaders rose 0.6% in May but remained down 1.6% YTD. Similarly, in the U.K. the May leaders did rise 0.6% but were down 0.7% YTD.
Leaders for Japan were down in May for the third straight month (-1.0% YTD) and in Canada the May leading indicators jumped 2.0% but the gain just made up for three consecutive months of decline.
For more from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), visit its website.
| OECD Main Economic Indicators | May | April | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD Major Seven - Leading Index (Trend Restored) | 119.1 | 118.2 | -0.3% | 4.2% | -2.1% | 3.3% |
| European Union | 117.2 | 116.5 | 0.2% | 3.1% | -1.7% | 3.8% |
| Japan | 100.6 | 100.7 | -1.0% | 0.7% | -2.9% | 2.6% |
| United States | 131.0 | 129.4 | -0.0% | 5.8% | -2.5% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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