Global| Jul 09 2003Consumer Credit Use Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) rose $7.3B (5.0% AR) in May. Consensus expectations had been for a $5.5B rise. The surge in April was revised down due to a lowered gain in nonrevolving credit. During the first [...]
Consumer credit outstanding (which excludes mortgages) rose $7.3B (5.0% AR) in May. Consensus expectations had been for a $5.5B rise. The surge in April was revised down due to a lowered gain in nonrevolving credit.
During the first five months of this year, consumer credit usage rose at a 4.7% annual rate.
Nonrevolving credit (which includes auto loans) rose at a 4.9% annual rate following the 7.8% jump in April. Year to date, nonrevolving credit usage is up at a 4.9% rate.
Revolving credit rose at a 5.3% annual rate and recovered from the weak 2.0% gain in April.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding | May m/m | April m/m | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $7.3B | $7.9B | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% |
| Revolving | $3.1B | $1.2B | 2.2% | 1.5% | 5.1% | 11.6% |
| Nonrevolving | $4.2B | $6.6B | 4.1% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
by Tom Moeller July 9, 2003
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association plunged 17.7% last week as interest rates rose. It was the largest drop in one week since late October of last year, also a time when interest rates blipped up.
Applications to refinance fell 21.3% w/w to the lowest level since early May.
Applications for home purchase fell a moderate 5.5% w/w. That followed the 6.6% gain the week prior which was to a record level.
During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage moved higher for the third week with the effective rate at 5.67% versus 6.13% averaged in December. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.07%, the first week over 5% since mid-May.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site at www.mbaa.org.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 7/04/03 | 6/27/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 1,346.3 | 1,635.5 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 414.1 | 438.4 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 6,768.3 | 8,599.1 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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