Non-farm payrolls rose just 112,000 last month, half the downwardly revised May gain of 235,000. Job growth also fell short of Consensus expectations for a 240,000 rise. Renewed decline in factory sector payrolls accounted for some of [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jul 02 2004U.S. Job Growth Took A Breather In June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 01 2004
Initial Claims Unemployment Insurance Stable
Initial claims for jobless insurance were about stable last week at 351,000. The prior week's level was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for 344,000 claims. The 4-week moving average of initial claims rose to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 30 2004
FOMC Raised Interest Rates; 1st Time Since May 2000
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the target rate for federal funds by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The discount rate also was raised to 2.25%. The decision was unanimous. The press release which accompanied the Fed's action [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 29 2004
Chain Store Sales Slide Big
Chain store sales fell a huge 1.2% last week, the largest one week decline since late March, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The decline in this the last full week of June pulled month-to-date [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 28 2004
U.S. Personal Income Firm
Personal income rose the same 0.6% (+5.8% y/y) last month as in April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% gain. For the second month the upside surprise was slight. Wages & salaries, however, have been notably firm rising 0.7% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 25 2004
Higher Imports Reduced Estimate of 1Q GDP Growth
US real GDP growth in 1Q was revised down to 3.9% (AR) from the preliminary report of 4.4% growth. The Consensus expectation was for little revision. Next month, the GDP figures back to 1Q 2001 will undergo the regular annual [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 24 2004
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rebound
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 13,000 last week to 349,000. The prior week's decline of 15,000, which may have been influenced by the Reagan Funeral, was unrevised. Consensus expectations had been for 340,000 claims. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 23 2004
Mortgage Applications Drift At Low Level
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association ticked up 0.1% (-61.3% y/y) last week. So far in June applications are 11.0% below the May average which fell 18.9% from April. Applications to refinance [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 22 2004
Chain Store Sales Rose As Gasoline Prices Fell
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales ticked up just 0.1% last week, but the gain followed small increases in the prior two weeks following three weeks of decline. Sales improvement [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 21 2004
ECRI Leading Indicators Slow
Decline through much of last month in the Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) was followed by a gain in the latest period. The declines lowered the six-month growth rate in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 21 2004
ECRI Leading Indicators Slow
Decline through much of last month in the Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) was followed by a gain in the latest period. The declines lowered the six-month growth rate in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jun 17 2004
PPI Jumped Again in May
Finished producer prices rose somewhat more than expected last month, up 0.8% versus Consensus expectations for a 0.6% gain. The rise followed a 0.7% jump in April and pulled the y/y change to 4.9%, its highest since 1990. Strength in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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