Global| Jun 22 2004Chain Store Sales Rose As Gasoline Prices Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales ticked up just 0.1% last week, but the gain followed small increases in the prior two weeks following three weeks of decline. Sales improvement [...]
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS reported that chain store sales ticked up just 0.1% last week, but the gain followed small increases in the prior two weeks following three weeks of decline.
Sales improvement may have been related to the decline in the average retail price for unleaded regular gasoline which fell to $1.94 last week. Prices were down $0.13 (6.2%) from the peak in the third week of May.
Recent increases in chain store sales left the average so far in June 0.5% below May.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is based on same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Lower spot crude oil prices have led the decline in gasoline prices with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude yesterday at $37.63 versus its peak of $41.88 on May 24th.
Moving in the other direction, wholesale natural gas prices moved higher to $6.49/mmbtu (+10.0% y/y), up 28% versus the daily low in February of $5.08/mmbtu.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
| Energy Prices | 06/21/04 | 12/31/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unleaded Regular Gasoline, NY ($/Gal.) | $1.94 | $1.48 | 29.5% | $1.56 | $1.35 | $1.42 |
| Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel) | $37.63 | $32.55 | 24.3% | $31.10 | $26.17 | $25.97 |
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 06/19/04 | 06/12/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 439.8 | 439.2 | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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