Global| Jun 29 2004Chain Store Sales Slide Big
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales fell a huge 1.2% last week, the largest one week decline since late March, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The decline in this the last full week of June pulled month-to-date [...]
Chain store sales fell a huge 1.2% last week, the largest one week decline since late March, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline in this the last full week of June pulled month-to-date sales 0.7% below the May average.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Improvement in sales may be portended by the recent slide in petroleum prices. Brent crude oil dropped yesterday to $33.25 on news of the Iraq power handover. Crude prices are down further today, off 15% from the May peak of $39.07.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 06/26/04 | 06/19/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 434.7 | 439.8 | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
by Tom Moeller June 29, 2004
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence for June rose 9.5% to 101.9 versus Consensus expectations for a slight rise to 95.0. June was the highest confidence level since June 2002. May was little revised.
During the last ten years there has been a 55% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The present situation index surged 15.8% to 104.8 (+63.2% y/y). The index of consumer expectations also was firm, up 5.5% to 100.0 (+3.7% y/y).
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 26.5% of respondents. That was down from 30.3% the prior month and was the lowest level since September 2002.
Expectations for business conditions in six months rose further in June following increases in the prior two months.
The June Confidence reading was firmer than the June reading of Consumer Sentiment reported by the University of Michigan.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y % change in real PCE.
The Conference Board’s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | June | May | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 101.9 | 93.1 | 22.0% | 79.8 | 96.6 | 106.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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