Global| Jun 28 2004U.S. Personal Income Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income rose the same 0.6% (+5.8% y/y) last month as in April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% gain. For the second month the upside surprise was slight. Wages & salaries, however, have been notably firm rising 0.7% [...]
Personal income rose the same 0.6% (+5.8% y/y) last month as in April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% gain.
For the second month the upside surprise was slight. Wages & salaries, however, have been notably firm rising 0.7% (5.1% y/y) in May and 0.6% in April reflecting the recent improvement in jobs growth. Firm wage gains were logged across industries but service industries rose a notable 1.0% (5.8% y/y).
Personal disposable income rose 0.6% for the second consecutive month (6.4% y/y). After accounting for a 2.5% y/y rise in prices, real disposable income rose 3.8%, down some from the recent peaks in the 4-6% range.
Consumer spending surged 1.0% in May as unit light vehicle sales jumped 8.7% m/m. A 0.8% gain in PCE had been expected. Nondurable goods spending also rose a strong 1.2% (9.9% y/y) as gasoline prices jumped and services rose 0.7% (5.5% y/y).
The PCE chain price index rose 0.5% following an upwardly revised 0.2% April gain. Less food & energy, prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) for the sixth month in the last eight.
The savings rate fell to 2.2% from the upwardly revised 2.6% in April.
| Disposition of Personal Income | May | April | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.6% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| Personal Consumption | 1.0% | 0.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Savings Rate | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.5% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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