Italian business confidence has been weakening but has now hit extreme proportions. We are day by day getting confirmation that the economic signals are every bit as bad as the worst of our expectations for recession. We are looking [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Dec 30 2008Italian Business Confidence Drops Like Stone
- Global| Dec 23 2008
IFO Details Show Widespread Gloom in Germany
With the release of the new detail, the IFO headline has not changed but the report now reveals how impacted the whole of the survey is from the ongoing weakness and gathering gloom. Germany’s IFO headline at 82.6 in Dec. from 96.3 in [...]
- Global| Dec 22 2008
Orders Make Record Drop in Euro During October
A rapid deceleration…The sharp drop in the growth rate for orders in the current quarter is telling of the rapidity with which this slowdown has struck Europe. Orders in the fourth quarter are falling at annual rates of 50% in [...]
- Global| Dec 19 2008
French Business Climate Goes South for the Winter
Business climate fell to 73 from 79 to a low since January of 1990 and tied for a life of series low last reached in June 1993 in this 35 year series. The recent trend and likely trend responses are also at their lowest since 2000. [...]
- Global| Dec 18 2008
IFO Index Drops
The IFO index fell to 82.6 in December from 85.8 in November. The current situation index fell to 88.8 in Dec. from 94.9 in Nov. Business expectations decreased to 76.8 from 77.6. The IFO index is much weaker in 2008 than it was in [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2008
UK Retail Sales Plummet
Our series on UK retail sales goes back to 1986. On that basis the current retail sales metrics are largely at their lowest for the entire series across measures except for inventories. Inventory-to-sales ratios are high, in the top [...]
- Global| Dec 16 2008
MFG and Services Indices Drop to New Lows
The Markit PMI FLASH indices for the MFG and Services sectors show that deterioration continues. Both are on lows for the period that the services index has been available. The drop this month was much smaller than last month’s drop. [...]
- Global| Dec 15 2008
Japan Tankan Survey Drops Sharply
Japan’s Tankan for 2008 Q4 shows dramatic weakening. The headline pace for large enterprises in manufacturing has dropped to -24 from -3 in 2008-Q4. Non MFG has turned negative to -9 in Q4 from +1 in Q3. The all industries index is at [...]
- Global| Dec 12 2008
Decline is 'Everywhere' !
The contribution to growth from IP is weakening sharply. The decline in IP, one that is an inflation-adjusted reading, is at a -13.5% rate in Q4. Consumer goods output is the strong sector, oddly enough, falling at a -3.8% pace early [...]
- Global| Dec 11 2008
UK Industrial Sector Still Under Great Pressure
The chart above tells the story for UK manufacturing. The bottom fell out in Sept, then in Oct and Nov., things got worse and now negative conditions are remaining in force at levels near the bottom of their recent range. Orders stand [...]
- Global| Dec 10 2008
Industrial Production Drops Sharply in France and Italy
Output plunges in Italy and in France In France a large part of the drop in IP is the weakened auto sector. Output in the auto sector fell by 14.3%. Declines, as the table shows, are widespread. The drops in output in France and in [...]
- Global| Dec 08 2008
German Industrial Output Trends is Weaker Than Expectedly
German industrial output fell by 2.1% in October and its sequential growth rates show a steady drumbeat of negativism more than an acceleration of weakness. This is in stark contrast to the unraveling in orders. But order weakness [...]
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