Global| Aug 21 2008Despite a Bump Up in July UK Retail Sales Trends Remain Poor
Summary
UK retail sales showed a sharp bump up in May of this year. Since that time it has been all downhill for the three major trends in retail sales: 3-mo, 6-mo and Yr/yr. The trends generally display a progressive deterioration in the [...]
UK retail sales showed a sharp bump up in May of this year.
Since that time it has been all downhill for the three major trends in
retail sales: 3-mo, 6-mo and Yr/yr. The trends generally display a
progressive deterioration in the pace of sales.
Over three-months there is a slight uptick in these
deteriorating trends and one that spreads across the main growths we
display in the table. Even real retail sales ex- autos show some lift.
But retail sales are volatile and vagaries of weather and calendar can
imbue a month with unexpected results. If we take the growth in July
annualized over the level of sales Q2 we find that quarter-to-date
sales are not just losing momentum but declining. The bump up in July
was not enough to offset the sharp weakness experienced in June. That
suggests that the June/July period taken together is a better barometer
of sales trends.
| UK Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | May-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | Quarter-2-date |
| Retail Total | 1.0% | -3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | -1.8% |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | 1.2% | -3.2% | 4.3% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| Clothing Footwear | 2.2% | -7.7% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | -1.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex Auto | 0.8% | -4.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 4.4% | -5.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
