The ZEW expectations for Germany as well as across a number of developed economies pulled back relatively sharply in March as fears of a trade war touched all the outlooks and the rising euro had some special consequences for EMU [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Mar 19 2018EMU Trade Surplus Shrinks A Bit As Trade Attacks Lurk
While the EMU trade surplus is the lowest in three months, it is also still higher than five month's surpluses back to January 2017 and higher than anything before November 2014. The 12-month average for a surplus is 20.1 billion [...]
- Global| Mar 16 2018
EMU Inflation Continues to Stay Under Wraps While the ECB Waits for the World to Change...Will It?
EMU inflation is even weaker upon its final revision. In February the HICP fell by 0.1% with core inflation up by 0.1% even the three-month pace of inflation is below 1.5% at 1.4% with the core pace even weaker at 1.2%. In February [...]
- Global| Mar 15 2018
European Car Registrations Fall- What Does It Mean?
Auto sales are a very cyclical economic variable. They are usually very good at pegging the business cycle. However, registrations in Europe are now following a path that is a bit hard to place. Forecasting and making economic [...]
- Global| Mar 14 2018
Cross Currents Swirl through European IP Trends
EMU industrial output fell by 1% in January. IP trends are relatively steady over 12 months and six months, but output is down to a 1.9% rate of growth over three months. Manufacturing output trends are in the 4.5% to 6% range over [...]
- Global| Mar 13 2018
Japan's Surveys Show Backtracking
Japanese indicators largely show growth moving ahead but recent indicators show some backtracking; thus, suggesting that this notion of a global acceleration is either overblown or not including Japan. Japan's Economy Watchers index, [...]
- Global| Mar 12 2018
Japan's Cabinet Office Survey
Japan's Cabinet Office survey backtracked in Q1 2018 with the business conditions index for large firms overall falling back to 3.3 in Q1 from 6.2 in Q4. The bellwether large manufacturing firm index fell to 2.9 from 9.7. This survey [...]
- Global| Mar 09 2018
German Output Slows; European Trends Are Mixed
German industrial production edged down 0.1% in January, marking the second monthly drop in a row. However, none of the sector components have dropped twice in a row and the three-month growth rate for total IP is at a 9.1% annual [...]
- Global| Mar 08 2018
German Orders Drop Sharply in January and Crimp Momentum
German orders are still growing rapidly after their sharp plunge in January. Year-on-year growth is 8.3% overall, 9.5% for foreign orders and 6.6% for domestic orders. But momentum has been sharply reduced with three-month and six- [...]
- Global| Mar 07 2018
French Trade Trends Deteriorate Along with So Much More...Incl. the Civility of International Policymaking
French trade trends show a bigger current account deficit in January and a larger deficit on trade. Exports fell in January as imports rose. Over three months trade trends have reversed as imports are outpacing exports unlike the [...]
- Global| Mar 06 2018
OECD Area Inflation Stays Down - Will Tariffs Push It Up?
Oil prices continue to try to work some inflation mischief in the background, but OECD area inflation in January ticked lower to log a 2.2% gain over 12 months, a tick below its December pace of 2.3%. The core inflation rate also [...]
- Global| Mar 05 2018
Global Composite PMIs Hit the Pause Button As Tariffs Loom
There are two sets of trends in February composite PMI readings. The first and most impressive story is how strong the readings are. The median reading in February is 55.2 with a median standing in the 91.8 the percentile of its five- [...]
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