Current conditions indexes in the ZEW framework usually do not change by much month-to-month. That was the case this month as well. But there was substantial degradation in expectations. Fears surrounding the possibility of a trade [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Apr 17 2018ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
- Global| Apr 16 2018
French Sales Step Up; But for How Long?
The series for French retail sales is volatile and hard to pin down. Nonetheless, consumer spending is having an upswing with three-month sales volume up at a 15% annual rate. Over three months, all retail components are rising. Five [...]
- Global| Apr 13 2018
EMU Trade Balance Surplus Expands Again
The euro area trade surplus grew again in February as trade flows contracted and imports fell faster than exports. The trade surplus rose to 20.988 billion euros in February from 20.214 billion euros in January. The EMU trade balance [...]
- Global| Apr 12 2018
Euro Area IP Crashes and Burns for the Third Straight Month; Is It Still a Good Time for Central Bankers to Shift Gears?
EMU industrial production has now fallen for three months in a row. Weakness is widespread and broad-based; it is severe in February, substantial over three months, and significant over six months. Output is falling on the quarter-to- [...]
- Global| Apr 11 2018
Bank of France Business Survey Sees Weaker Future But There Are Even Deeper Problems
The Bank of France business survey stepped down to a reading of 102.7 in March from 104.6 in February. The reading is the weakest since the survey barometer logged 101.9 in January 2017, a bit more than one year ago. Since then the [...]
- Global| Apr 10 2018
French and Italian Output Sag...for How Much Longer?
French and Italian manufacturing industrial production indexes have backed off in February. For Italy, it is two drops in a row; for France, it is four in a row. The PMI gauges have been weakening in Europe and we can see that the [...]
- Global| Apr 09 2018
German Trade Flows Contract As the German Surplus Shrinks; Is Germany Caught Up in the Great Trade Game?
German exports and imports each fell in February, resulting in the smallest trade surplus since January 2017. However, both 2016 and 2017 produced a low deficit reading in either January or February so the decline has a ring of [...]
- Global| Apr 06 2018
German IP Drops Sharply- What Does It Mean?
Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.6% in February as bad weather may have taken a toll on output. Construction output fell by 7.2% in February. The March construction PMI for Germany fell for the first time since 2015. [...]
- Global| Apr 05 2018
Global Composite PMIs Sag; Trade War Looms with Global Economy Already in Swoon-Mode
The global PMIs have largely weakened in March. Much of this is on the back of weakening services sectors (see Chart). Of the 14 countries listed in the table (excludes EMU), all but one, India, weaken in March compared to February. [...]
- Global| Apr 04 2018
EMU Unemployment Rate Lowest Since 2008; It All Looks So Good on the Surface But There Are Such Problems Underneath
The EMU continues to make growth progress and make progress in reducing the unemployment rate in the area. The EMU unemployment rate is down to its 2008 low. But bigger issue loom. Euro-Kumbaya! Among the original EMU members, all [...]
- Global| Apr 03 2018
Global Manufacturing PMIs Perform; But What the Heck About Demand?
There is a definite softer spot being hit by the global PMIs in March. The unweighted PMI average is at 52.5 in March, down from 53.2 in February and 53.5 in January. In addition, 12 of 17 country indexes (excluding the EMU aggregate) [...]
- Global| Apr 02 2018
Asia Shows a Lot of Weakness; And Japan's Tankan Is Tankin’ As a Theme of Trade War Plays Out
There is a broad-based tailing off of manufacturing PMIs in Asia in March. For the most part, the drops are not severe. But even where the queue percentile standings are relatively high, it is only because recent manufacturing [...]
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