Judging from consumer confidence, the largest European economies would seem to be in fine shape. German confidence for May is mooted at a 97.8% queue percentile standing, better only 2% of the time. Italy has exactly the same queue [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Apr 26 2018German Confidence Flattens and Falters
- Global| Apr 25 2018
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February, but it’s less than expected and it brings the business activity index to a level that is barely above its level of last October. The METI indexes are at relatively high marks as [...]
- Global| Apr 24 2018
Italian Confidence Backtracks But Remains High-Valued As It Is for France and Germany
Italy can be a difficult country to understand. Its GDP has lagged badly since the great global recession. From Q1 2008 to date, Italian GDP actually has failed to grow and has declined by 5.8%. That’s a period of 10 years without net [...]
- Global| Apr 23 2018
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago. In April, they are holding their ground at a lower level of indicated activity. The moving averages, calculated on lagging historic [...]
- Global| Apr 20 2018
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017. Technically, the year-on-year PPI has decelerated for six months straight with this month’s acceleration being the first in the period. This is despite the [...]
- Global| Apr 19 2018
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates that U.K. GDP rose by 0.2% in Q1 2018. That translates into an annualized [...]
- Global| Apr 18 2018
Japan’s Trade Surplus Returns Even As Trade Flows Slow
While the IMF has just lifted its outlook for growth in 2018, Japan is logging weaker and weaker export and import growth as the year progresses. Asia generally has been lagging. The PMIs in Europe have weakened but are still showing [...]
- Global| Apr 17 2018
ZEW Expectations Take a Dive: From Fear to Eternity
Current conditions indexes in the ZEW framework usually do not change by much month-to-month. That was the case this month as well. But there was substantial degradation in expectations. Fears surrounding the possibility of a trade [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2018
French Sales Step Up; But for How Long?
The series for French retail sales is volatile and hard to pin down. Nonetheless, consumer spending is having an upswing with three-month sales volume up at a 15% annual rate. Over three months, all retail components are rising. Five [...]
- Global| Apr 13 2018
EMU Trade Balance Surplus Expands Again
The euro area trade surplus grew again in February as trade flows contracted and imports fell faster than exports. The trade surplus rose to 20.988 billion euros in February from 20.214 billion euros in January. The EMU trade balance [...]
- Global| Apr 12 2018
Euro Area IP Crashes and Burns for the Third Straight Month; Is It Still a Good Time for Central Bankers to Shift Gears?
EMU industrial production has now fallen for three months in a row. Weakness is widespread and broad-based; it is severe in February, substantial over three months, and significant over six months. Output is falling on the quarter-to- [...]
- Global| Apr 11 2018
Bank of France Business Survey Sees Weaker Future But There Are Even Deeper Problems
The Bank of France business survey stepped down to a reading of 102.7 in March from 104.6 in February. The reading is the weakest since the survey barometer logged 101.9 in January 2017, a bit more than one year ago. Since then the [...]
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