U.S. Import & Export Prices Decline in October
- Import price weakness is broad-based.
- Export price movement is mixed.
- Fuels prices decline sharply.
Import prices for all goods declined 0.8% (-2.0% y/y) during October following a 0.4% September gain, revised from 0.1%. Prices rose an unrevised 0.6% in August according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Goods export prices weakened 1.1% (-4.9% y/y) after increasing 0.5% in September, revised from 0.7%. Prices rose a little-revised 1.2% in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.3% decline in import prices and a 0.5% drop in export prices in October.
The decline in import prices last month reflected a 6.3% fall (-11.4% y/y) in fuels prices which followed a 6.2% September increase. Excluding fuels, import prices eased 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) in October, off for the fifth straight month. Foods, feeds & beverage import prices weakened 0.6% (+3.9% y/y) after easing 0.4% in September. Nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) after holding steady in both of the prior two months. Capital goods import prices eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y) last month following no change in September. To the upside, motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.1% September gain.
The decline in export prices during October reflected a 1.0% fall (-4.5% y/y) in nonagricultural product prices which followed a 0.7% September gain. Agricultural export product prices fell 1.1% (-8.5% y/y) after declining 1.2% in September. Industrial supplies & materials export prices weakened 2.5% (-12.0% y/y) following a 1.6% September rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices fell 1.1% (-9.1% y/y), down for the third straight month. Nonauto consumer goods prices weakened 0.3% (+1.5% y/y) for the third straight month. Working higher, motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after a 1.0% gain. Capital goods export prices rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) following two straight 0.1% gains.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom MoellerAuthorMore in Author Profile »
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.